Oak Grove Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,248	2413.7	− 2436	−22.3	× 1201 / 6960	−3.8
4	88,250	2451.5	− 2485	−33.5	× 1126 / 6960	−5.4
5	88,252	2489.0	− 2528	−39	× 1202 / 6960	−6.7
6	88,254	2513.9	− 2552	−38.1	× 1175 / 6960	−6.4
7	88,256	2546.2	− 2567	−20.8	× 1162 / 6960	−3.5
8	88,258	2557.5	− 2586	−28.5	× 1094 / 6960	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,911	2428.8	− 2436	−7.2	× 1097 / 6930	−1.1
4	81,914	2461.7	− 2485	−23.3	× 1196 / 6930	−4
5	81,915	2487.6	− 2528	−40.4	× 1140 / 6930	−6.6
6	81,917	2523.8	− 2552	−28.2	× 1203 / 6930	−4.9
7	81,920	2545.4	− 2567	−21.6	× 1112 / 6930	−3.5
8	81,921	2559.6	− 2586	−26.4	× 1182 / 6930	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,191	2432.1	− 2436	−3.9	× 1141 / 6798	−0.7
4	84,194	2471.1	− 2485	−13.9	× 1104 / 6798	−2.3
5	84,196	2489.0	− 2528	−39	× 1208 / 6798	−6.9
6	84,198	2522.1	− 2552	−29.9	× 1122 / 6798	−4.9
7	84,199	2554.1	− 2567	−12.9	× 1122 / 6798	−2.1
8	84,202	2554.2	− 2586	−31.8	× 1101 / 6798	−5.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,410	2436.9	− 2436	0.9	× 1006 / 6583	0.1
4	84,411	2477.1	− 2485	−7.9	× 1128 / 6583	−1.4
5	84,413	2502.8	− 2528	−25.2	× 1095 / 6583	−4.2
6	84,416	2528.5	− 2552	−23.5	× 1196 / 6583	−4.3
7	84,417	2551.6	− 2567	−15.4	× 1054 / 6583	−2.5
8	84,420	2567.6	− 2586	−18.4	× 1104 / 6583	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,030	2440.1	− 2436	4.1	× 1089 / 6407	0.7
4	85,031	2479.9	− 2485	−5.1	× 986 / 6407	−0.8
5	85,032	2504.4	− 2528	−23.6	× 1087 / 6407	−4
6	85,033	2532.2	− 2552	−19.8	× 1094 / 6407	−3.4
7	85,034	2550.3	− 2567	−16.7	× 1108 / 6407	−2.9
8	85,035	2572.7	− 2586	−13.3	× 1043 / 6407	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,211	2432.0	− 2436	−4	× 932 / 5725	−0.7
4	85,212	2462.5	− 2485	−22.5	× 950 / 5725	−3.7
5	85,213	2483.2	− 2528	−44.8	× 990 / 5725	−7.7
6	85,214	2518.7	− 2552	−33.3	× 1030 / 5725	−6
7	85,215	2532.8	− 2567	−34.2	× 888 / 5725	−5.3
8	85,216	2553.0	− 2586	−33	× 935 / 5725	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,148	2426.7	− 2436	−9.3	× 947 / 5708	−1.5
4	85,149	2473.7	− 2485	−11.3	× 968 / 5708	−1.9
5	85,150	2488.6	− 2528	−39.4	× 962 / 5708	−6.6
6	85,151	2511.7	− 2552	−40.3	× 991 / 5708	−7
7	85,152	2537.6	− 2567	−29.4	× 953 / 5708	−4.9
8	85,153	2541.9	− 2586	−44.1	× 887 / 5708	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,135	2426.6	− 2436	−9.4	× 881 / 5645	−1.5
4	85,136	2470.2	− 2485	−14.8	× 948 / 5645	−2.5
5	85,137	2490.5	− 2528	−37.5	× 971 / 5645	−6.5
6	85,138	2511.2	− 2552	−40.8	× 975 / 5645	−7
7	85,139	2530.9	− 2567	−36.1	× 928 / 5645	−5.9
8	85,140	2547.9	− 2586	−38.1	× 942 / 5645	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,827	2434.1	− 2436	−1.9	× 901 / 5532	−0.3
4	84,828	2476.3	− 2485	−8.7	× 879 / 5532	−1.4
5	84,829	2490.5	− 2528	−37.5	× 945 / 5532	−6.4
6	84,830	2523.8	− 2552	−28.2	× 973 / 5532	−5
7	84,831	2527.5	− 2567	−39.5	× 919 / 5532	−6.6
8	84,832	2549.0	− 2586	−37	× 915 / 5532	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −30, −25, −22, −15, −13, −29, −29, −30, −26 → −24.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 16 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 4.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.8 × 2.66 = 12.8. Upper limit −11.5, lower limit −37.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.