Frost (Earl) Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,292	2407.4	− 2436	−28.6	× 115 / 412	−8
4	88,293	2459.3	− 2485	−25.7	× 91 / 412	−5.7
5	88,296	2470.2	− 2528	−57.8	× 77 / 412	−10.8
6	88,297	2486.6	− 2552	−65.4	× 92 / 412	−14.6
7	88,300	2557.9	− 2567	−9.1	× 22 / 412	−0.5
8	88,301	2512.4	− 2586	−73.6	× 15 / 412	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,962	2406.7	− 2436	−29.3	× 85 / 382	−6.5
4	81,963	2448.6	− 2485	−36.4	× 111 / 382	−10.6
5	81,966	2487.6	− 2528	−40.4	× 76 / 382	−8
6	81,968	2499.2	− 2552	−52.8	× 75 / 382	−10.4
7	81,969	2512.4	− 2567	−54.6	× 17 / 382	−2.4
8	81,971	2564.5	− 2586	−21.5	× 18 / 382	−1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,249	2410.0	− 2436	−26	× 85 / 389	−5.7
4	84,251	2456.9	− 2485	−28.1	× 91 / 389	−6.6
5	84,253	2478.2	− 2528	−49.8	× 102 / 389	−13.1
6	84,255	2512.8	− 2552	−39.2	× 76 / 389	−7.7
7	84,257	2562.9	− 2567	−4.1	× 18 / 389	−0.2
8	84,260	2537.4	− 2586	−48.6	× 17 / 389	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,468	2435.0	− 2436	−1	× 79 / 349	−0.2
4	84,469	2461.3	− 2485	−23.7	× 69 / 349	−4.7
5	84,471	2488.2	− 2528	−39.8	× 74 / 349	−8.4
6	84,473	2511.4	− 2552	−40.6	× 97 / 349	−11.3
7	84,475	2584.0	− 2567	17	× 14 / 349	0.7
8	84,477	2596.4	− 2586	10.4	× 16 / 349	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,086	2435.4	− 2436	−0.6	× 97 / 341	−0.2
4	85,087	2476.5	− 2485	−8.5	× 75 / 341	−1.9
5	85,088	2505.0	− 2528	−23	× 64 / 341	−4.3
6	85,089	2524.9	− 2552	−27.1	× 65 / 341	−5.2
7	85,090	2575.5	− 2567	8.5	× 27 / 341	0.7
8	85,091	2609.9	− 2586	23.9	× 13 / 341	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,281	2427.9	− 2436	−8.1	× 34 / 160	−1.7
4	85,282	2459.3	− 2485	−25.7	× 43 / 160	−6.9
5	85,283	2440.6	− 2528	−87.4	× 45 / 160	−24.6
6	85,284	2521.4	− 2552	−30.6	× 38 / 160	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,218	2426.7	− 2436	−9.3	× 44 / 165	−2.5
4	85,219	2477.6	− 2485	−7.4	× 38 / 165	−1.7
5	85,220	2481.7	− 2528	−46.3	× 37 / 165	−10.4
6	85,221	2527.0	− 2552	−25	× 46 / 165	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,205	2407.4	− 2436	−28.6	× 45 / 158	−8.1
4	85,206	2492.8	− 2485	7.8	× 39 / 158	1.9
5	85,207	2472.1	− 2528	−55.9	× 32 / 158	−11.3
6	85,208	2523.2	− 2552	−28.8	× 42 / 158	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,897	2463.3	− 2436	27.3	× 55 / 177	8.5
4	84,898	2464.3	− 2485	−20.7	× 48 / 177	−5.6
5	84,899	2488.1	− 2528	−39.9	× 40 / 177	−9
6	84,900	2512.9	− 2552	−39.1	× 34 / 177	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −42, −39, −35, −23, −10, −40, −22, −25, −14 → −27.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2022: 30 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 11 → average 11.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.8 × 2.66 = 31.4. Upper limit 3.6, lower limit −59.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.