Hayes Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,436	2400.9	− 2436	−35.1	× 75 / 287	−9.2
4	88,438	2443.2	− 2485	−41.8	× 65 / 287	−9.5
5	88,440	2462.7	− 2528	−65.3	× 81 / 287	−18.4
6	88,442	2513.5	− 2552	−38.5	× 66 / 287	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,107	2409.5	− 2436	−26.5	× 69 / 279	−6.6
4	82,109	2461.9	− 2485	−23.1	× 72 / 279	−6
5	82,111	2461.7	− 2528	−66.3	× 55 / 279	−13.1
6	82,113	2496.7	− 2552	−55.3	× 83 / 279	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,394	2433.4	− 2436	−2.6	× 62 / 237	−0.7
4	84,395	2463.0	− 2485	−22	× 61 / 237	−5.7
5	84,398	2483.9	− 2528	−44.1	× 61 / 237	−11.4
6	84,400	2524.7	− 2552	−27.3	× 53 / 237	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,611	2433.4	− 2436	−2.6	× 62 / 239	−0.7
4	84,614	2483.4	− 2485	−1.6	× 62 / 239	−0.4
5	84,615	2491.2	− 2528	−36.8	× 50 / 239	−7.7
6	84,618	2540.6	− 2552	−11.4	× 65 / 239	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,208	2418.8	− 2436	−17.2	× 77 / 347	−3.8
4	85,209	2456.8	− 2485	−28.2	× 93 / 347	−7.6
5	85,210	2489.3	− 2528	−38.7	× 84 / 347	−9.4
6	85,211	2540.0	− 2552	−12	× 93 / 347	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,397	2418.6	− 2436	−17.4	× 63 / 258	−4.2
4	85,398	2449.0	− 2485	−36	× 65 / 258	−9.1
5	85,399	2450.6	− 2528	−77.4	× 59 / 258	−17.7
6	85,400	2534.2	− 2552	−17.8	× 71 / 258	−4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,336	2410.1	− 2436	−25.9	× 64 / 256	−6.5
4	85,337	2459.7	− 2485	−25.3	× 67 / 256	−6.6
5	85,338	2462.5	− 2528	−65.5	× 61 / 256	−15.6
6	85,339	2513.3	− 2552	−38.7	× 64 / 256	−9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,325	2395.1	− 2436	−40.9	× 66 / 256	−10.5
4	85,326	2453.7	− 2485	−31.3	× 65 / 256	−7.9
5	85,327	2474.4	− 2528	−53.6	× 62 / 256	−13
6	85,328	2504.4	− 2552	−47.6	× 63 / 256	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,013	2413.7	− 2436	−22.3	× 85 / 266	−7.1
4	85,014	2452.3	− 2485	−32.7	× 60 / 266	−7.4
5	85,015	2449.8	− 2528	−78.2	× 60 / 266	−17.6
6	85,016	2537.3	− 2552	−14.7	× 61 / 266	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −46, −42, −24, −12, −24, −36, −38, −43, −36 → −33.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 18 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 7 → average 9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9 × 2.66 = 23.9. Upper limit −9.5, lower limit −57.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.