Neil Hafley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,910	2392.4	− 2436	−43.6	× 103 / 556	−8.1
4	79,913	2438.2	− 2485	−46.8	× 94 / 556	−7.9
5	79,914	2458.4	− 2528	−69.6	× 72 / 556	−9
6	79,917	2477.7	− 2552	−74.3	× 73 / 556	−9.8
7	79,918	2494.2	− 2567	−72.8	× 109 / 556	−14.3
8	79,921	2513.4	− 2586	−72.6	× 105 / 556	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,040	2393.0	− 2436	−43	× 101 / 560	−7.8
4	74,042	2429.5	− 2485	−55.5	× 104 / 560	−10.3
5	74,045	2455.1	− 2528	−72.9	× 94 / 560	−12.2
6	74,046	2485.8	− 2552	−66.2	× 74 / 560	−8.7
7	74,049	2487.2	− 2567	−79.8	× 80 / 560	−11.4
8	74,050	2512.1	− 2586	−73.9	× 107 / 560	−14.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,028	2402.9	− 2436	−33.1	× 58 / 523	−3.7
4	76,029	2420.8	− 2485	−64.2	× 99 / 523	−12.2
5	76,032	2441.0	− 2528	−87	× 102 / 523	−17
6	76,033	2458.9	− 2552	−93.1	× 103 / 523	−18.3
7	76,035	2512.5	− 2567	−54.5	× 77 / 523	−8
8	76,037	2510.1	− 2586	−75.9	× 84 / 523	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,218	2388.4	− 2436	−47.6	× 83 / 523	−7.6
4	76,221	2416.7	− 2485	−68.3	× 70 / 523	−9.1
5	76,222	2420.1	− 2528	−107.9	× 103 / 523	−21.2
6	76,225	2471.0	− 2552	−81	× 91 / 523	−14.1
7	76,226	2489.8	− 2567	−77.2	× 100 / 523	−14.8
8	76,229	2514.1	− 2586	−71.9	× 76 / 523	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,743	2405.8	− 2436	−30.2	× 93 / 531	−5.3
4	76,744	2443.4	− 2485	−41.6	× 73 / 531	−5.7
5	76,745	2437.9	− 2528	−90.1	× 71 / 531	−12
6	76,746	2453.7	− 2552	−98.3	× 104 / 531	−19.3
7	76,747	2488.8	− 2567	−78.2	× 91 / 531	−13.4
8	76,748	2490.6	− 2586	−95.4	× 99 / 531	−17.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,899	2344.7	− 2436	−91.3	× 87 / 488	−16.3
4	76,900	2424.7	− 2485	−60.3	× 71 / 488	−8.8
5	76,901	2424.3	− 2528	−103.7	× 94 / 488	−20
6	76,902	2425.1	− 2552	−126.9	× 95 / 488	−24.7
7	76,903	2457.1	− 2567	−109.9	× 88 / 488	−19.8
8	76,904	2418.7	− 2586	−167.3	× 53 / 488	−18.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,893	2375.3	− 2436	−60.7	× 85 / 525	−9.8
4	76,894	2387.9	− 2485	−97.1	× 94 / 525	−17.4
5	76,895	2425.2	− 2528	−102.8	× 71 / 525	−13.9
6	76,896	2443.8	− 2552	−108.2	× 99 / 525	−20.4
7	76,897	2477.0	− 2567	−90	× 91 / 525	−15.6
8	76,898	2485.1	− 2586	−100.9	× 85 / 525	−16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,884	2370.0	− 2436	−66	× 82 / 576	−9.4
4	76,885	2408.4	− 2485	−76.6	× 97 / 576	−12.9
5	76,886	2403.6	− 2528	−124.4	× 95 / 576	−20.5
6	76,887	2454.7	− 2552	−97.3	× 89 / 576	−15
7	76,888	2466.6	− 2567	−100.4	× 110 / 576	−19.2
8	76,889	2472.7	− 2586	−113.3	× 103 / 576	−20.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,537	2381.4	− 2436	−54.6	× 82 / 542	−8.3
4	76,538	2396.3	− 2485	−88.7	× 83 / 542	−13.6
5	76,539	2423.3	− 2528	−104.7	× 87 / 542	−16.8
6	76,540	2415.4	− 2552	−136.6	× 87 / 542	−21.9
7	76,541	2459.6	− 2567	−107.4	× 97 / 542	−19.2
8	76,542	2458.8	− 2586	−127.2	× 106 / 542	−24.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −63, −65, −71, −77, −73, −108, −93, −97, −105 → −83.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 35 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 10
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10 × 2.66 = 26.6. Upper limit −57, lower limit −110.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.