New Haven Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,854	2409.9	− 2436	−26.1	× 62 / 403	−4
4	79,857	2446.6	− 2485	−38.4	× 63 / 403	−6
5	79,858	2453.3	− 2528	−74.7	× 62 / 403	−11.5
6	79,861	2500.8	− 2552	−51.2	× 83 / 403	−10.5
7	79,862	2514.5	− 2567	−52.5	× 67 / 403	−8.7
8	79,865	2516.0	− 2586	−70	× 66 / 403	−11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,984	2420.9	− 2436	−15.1	× 62 / 396	−2.4
4	73,987	2449.9	− 2485	−35.1	× 56 / 396	−5
5	73,989	2448.8	− 2528	−79.2	× 66 / 396	−13.2
6	73,990	2504.7	− 2552	−47.3	× 69 / 396	−8.2
7	73,992	2537.5	− 2567	−29.5	× 78 / 396	−5.8
8	73,994	2532.6	− 2586	−53.4	× 65 / 396	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,971	2405.9	− 2436	−30.1	× 83 / 431	−5.8
4	75,974	2444.1	− 2485	−40.9	× 69 / 431	−6.5
5	75,976	2459.9	− 2528	−68.1	× 66 / 431	−10.4
6	75,978	2494.3	− 2552	−57.7	× 65 / 431	−8.7
7	75,980	2510.6	− 2567	−56.4	× 68 / 431	−8.9
8	75,981	2540.0	− 2586	−46	× 80 / 431	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,162	2439.9	− 2436	3.9	× 57 / 401	0.6
4	76,165	2463.2	− 2485	−21.8	× 78 / 401	−4.2
5	76,166	2478.6	− 2528	−49.4	× 68 / 401	−8.4
6	76,169	2499.2	− 2552	−52.8	× 65 / 401	−8.6
7	76,170	2519.6	− 2567	−47.4	× 56 / 401	−6.6
8	76,173	2582.5	− 2586	−3.5	× 77 / 401	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,687	2434.3	− 2436	−1.7	× 45 / 371	−0.2
4	76,688	2442.8	− 2485	−42.2	× 57 / 371	−6.5
5	76,689	2494.5	− 2528	−33.5	× 72 / 371	−6.5
6	76,690	2512.2	− 2552	−39.8	× 68 / 371	−7.3
7	76,691	2515.6	− 2567	−51.4	× 66 / 371	−9.1
8	76,692	2570.1	− 2586	−15.9	× 63 / 371	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,843	2411.4	− 2436	−24.6	× 56 / 342	−4
4	76,844	2403.2	− 2485	−81.8	× 67 / 342	−16
5	76,845	2469.5	− 2528	−58.5	× 47 / 342	−8
6	76,846	2516.8	− 2552	−35.2	× 45 / 342	−4.6
7	76,847	2456.8	− 2567	−110.2	× 60 / 342	−19.3
8	76,848	2531.3	− 2586	−54.7	× 67 / 342	−10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,837	2435.5	− 2436	−0.5	× 51 / 327	−0.1
4	76,838	2439.3	− 2485	−45.7	× 56 / 327	−7.8
5	76,839	2439.3	− 2528	−88.7	× 74 / 327	−20.1
6	76,840	2498.0	− 2552	−54	× 52 / 327	−8.6
7	76,841	2507.6	− 2567	−59.4	× 34 / 327	−6.2
8	76,842	2513.4	− 2586	−72.6	× 60 / 327	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,828	2391.2	− 2436	−44.8	× 65 / 327	−8.9
4	76,829	2463.4	− 2485	−21.6	× 48 / 327	−3.2
5	76,830	2416.6	− 2528	−111.4	× 60 / 327	−20.4
6	76,831	2472.1	− 2552	−79.9	× 66 / 327	−16.1
7	76,832	2510.1	− 2567	−56.9	× 55 / 327	−9.6
8	76,833	2554.0	− 2586	−32	× 33 / 327	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,481	2389.7	− 2436	−46.3	× 69 / 370	−8.6
4	76,482	2410.0	− 2485	−75	× 64 / 370	−13
5	76,483	2470.4	− 2528	−57.6	× 53 / 370	−8.3
6	76,484	2456.0	− 2552	−96	× 62 / 370	−16.1
7	76,485	2477.2	− 2567	−89.8	× 70 / 370	−17
8	76,486	2539.7	− 2586	−46.3	× 52 / 370	−6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −52, −43, −49, −28, −32, −63, −56, −61, −69 → −50.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 21 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 31 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 11.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.4 × 2.66 = 30.3. Upper limit −20, lower limit −80.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.