Mossdale Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,737	2414.0	− 2436	−22	× 129 / 648	−4.4
4	79,739	2441.6	− 2485	−43.4	× 106 / 648	−7.1
5	79,740	2467.0	− 2528	−61	× 89 / 648	−8.4
6	79,743	2513.8	− 2552	−38.2	× 111 / 648	−6.5
7	79,744	2526.4	− 2567	−40.6	× 81 / 648	−5.1
8	79,747	2549.0	− 2586	−37	× 132 / 648	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,881	2416.1	− 2436	−19.9	× 109 / 651	−3.3
4	73,883	2448.7	− 2485	−36.3	× 130 / 651	−7.2
5	73,884	2468.0	− 2528	−60	× 103 / 651	−9.5
6	73,886	2529.5	− 2552	−22.5	× 100 / 651	−3.5
7	73,888	2540.1	− 2567	−26.9	× 117 / 651	−4.8
8	73,890	2557.2	− 2586	−28.8	× 92 / 651	−4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,858	2409.6	− 2436	−26.4	× 106 / 652	−4.3
4	75,860	2450.4	− 2485	−34.6	× 103 / 652	−5.5
5	75,861	2473.3	− 2528	−54.7	× 131 / 652	−11
6	75,863	2516.4	− 2552	−35.6	× 107 / 652	−5.8
7	75,865	2548.4	− 2567	−18.6	× 90 / 652	−2.6
8	75,867	2558.6	− 2586	−27.4	× 115 / 652	−4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,044	2435.2	− 2436	−0.8	× 116 / 678	−0.1
4	76,046	2455.0	− 2485	−30	× 107 / 678	−4.7
5	76,048	2472.4	− 2528	−55.6	× 113 / 678	−9.3
6	76,050	2524.8	− 2552	−27.2	× 136 / 678	−5.5
7	76,052	2548.6	− 2567	−18.4	× 109 / 678	−3
8	76,054	2560.5	− 2586	−25.5	× 97 / 678	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,569	2444.6	− 2436	8.6	× 103 / 675	1.3
4	76,570	2475.9	− 2485	−9.1	× 102 / 675	−1.4
5	76,571	2455.7	− 2528	−72.3	× 124 / 675	−13.3
6	76,572	2501.0	− 2552	−51	× 110 / 675	−8.3
7	76,573	2574.6	− 2567	7.6	× 124 / 675	1.4
8	76,574	2562.9	− 2586	−23.1	× 112 / 675	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,739	2403.9	− 2436	−32.1	× 94 / 682	−4.4
4	76,740	2456.4	− 2485	−28.6	× 120 / 682	−5
5	76,741	2469.0	− 2528	−59	× 138 / 682	−11.9
6	76,742	2484.1	− 2552	−67.9	× 106 / 682	−10.6
7	76,743	2545.6	− 2567	−21.4	× 108 / 682	−3.4
8	76,744	2508.8	− 2586	−77.2	× 116 / 682	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,721	2418.8	− 2436	−17.2	× 129 / 738	−3
4	76,722	2453.9	− 2485	−31.1	× 100 / 738	−4.2
5	76,723	2461.2	− 2528	−66.8	× 126 / 738	−11.4
6	76,724	2495.2	− 2552	−56.8	× 136 / 738	−10.5
7	76,725	2495.0	− 2567	−72	× 125 / 738	−12.2
8	76,726	2526.0	− 2586	−60	× 122 / 738	−9.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,706	2395.3	− 2436	−40.7	× 126 / 777	−6.6
4	76,707	2440.1	− 2485	−44.9	× 136 / 777	−7.9
5	76,708	2470.4	− 2528	−57.6	× 102 / 777	−7.6
6	76,709	2485.8	− 2552	−66.2	× 125 / 777	−10.6
7	76,710	2515.9	− 2567	−51.1	× 155 / 777	−10.2
8	76,711	2495.4	− 2586	−90.6	× 133 / 777	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,369	2406.7	− 2436	−29.3	× 116 / 789	−4.3
4	76,370	2444.8	− 2485	−40.2	× 136 / 789	−6.9
5	76,371	2470.0	− 2528	−58	× 138 / 789	−10.1
6	76,372	2512.4	− 2552	−39.6	× 103 / 789	−5.2
7	76,373	2524.3	− 2567	−42.7	× 135 / 789	−7.3
8	76,374	2510.7	− 2586	−75.3	× 161 / 789	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −39, −32, −34, −26, −24, −48, −51, −58, −49 → −40.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 7.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.8 × 2.66 = 20.7. Upper limit −19.4, lower limit −60.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.