San Francisco Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,717	2440.9	− 2436	4.9	× 4325 / 26277	0.8
4	77,718	2475.8	− 2485	−9.2	× 4306 / 26277	−1.5
5	77,721	2510.6	− 2528	−17.4	× 4117 / 26277	−2.7
6	77,722	2525.2	− 2552	−26.8	× 3383 / 26277	−3.5
7	77,725	2547.7	− 2567	−19.3	× 3357 / 26277	−2.5
8	77,726	2564.3	− 2586	−21.7	× 3378 / 26277	−2.8
11	77,729	2611.4	− 2628	−16.6	× 3411 / 26277	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,899	2440.9	− 2436	4.9	× 4335 / 26466	0.8
4	71,901	2478.0	− 2485	−7	× 4246 / 26466	−1.1
5	71,902	2506.9	− 2528	−21.1	× 4076 / 26466	−3.2
6	71,904	2524.6	− 2552	−27.4	× 3620 / 26466	−3.7
7	71,907	2556.2	− 2567	−10.8	× 3430 / 26466	−1.4
8	71,908	2570.8	− 2586	−15.2	× 3359 / 26466	−1.9
11	71,911	2617.2	− 2628	−10.8	× 3400 / 26466	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,858	2452.0	− 2436	16	× 4093 / 26384	2.5
4	73,861	2479.4	− 2485	−5.6	× 4171 / 26384	−0.9
5	73,863	2506.1	− 2528	−21.9	× 4052 / 26384	−3.4
6	73,864	2519.2	− 2552	−32.8	× 3594 / 26384	−4.5
7	73,867	2556.9	− 2567	−10.1	× 3604 / 26384	−1.4
8	73,868	2577.4	− 2586	−8.6	× 3416 / 26384	−1.1
11	73,871	2622.5	− 2628	−5.5	× 3454 / 26384	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,028	2446.0	− 2436	10	× 4009 / 26141	1.5
4	74,031	2484.6	− 2485	−0.4	× 4070 / 26141	−0.1
5	74,032	2506.7	− 2528	−21.3	× 4040 / 26141	−3.3
6	74,035	2524.4	− 2552	−27.6	× 3443 / 26141	−3.6
7	74,036	2552.3	− 2567	−14.7	× 3559 / 26141	−2
8	74,039	2578.3	− 2586	−7.7	× 3582 / 26141	−1.1
11	74,040	2610.7	− 2628	−17.3	× 3438 / 26141	−2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,554	2448.9	− 2436	12.9	× 4068 / 25913	2
4	74,555	2481.7	− 2485	−3.3	× 4014 / 25913	−0.5
5	74,556	2515.6	− 2528	−12.4	× 3950 / 25913	−1.9
6	74,557	2517.2	− 2552	−34.8	× 3472 / 25913	−4.7
7	74,558	2559.0	− 2567	−8	× 3465 / 25913	−1.1
8	74,559	2572.0	− 2586	−14	× 3545 / 25913	−1.9
11	74,560	2609.8	− 2628	−18.2	× 3399 / 25913	−2.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,079	2499.4	− 2436	63.4	× 15 / 55	17.3
4	73,080	2544.5	− 2485	59.5	× 14 / 55	15.1
5	73,081	2556.1	− 2528	28.1	× 26 / 55	13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						46

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,726	2443.3	− 2436	7.3	× 3643 / 23632	1.1
4	74,727	2471.0	− 2485	−14	× 3709 / 23632	−2.2
5	74,728	2498.8	− 2528	−29.2	× 3793 / 23632	−4.7
6	74,729	2504.4	− 2552	−47.6	× 3039 / 23632	−6.1
7	74,730	2530.7	− 2567	−36.3	× 3071 / 23632	−4.7
8	74,731	2548.3	− 2586	−37.7	× 3176 / 23632	−5.1
11	74,732	2600.2	− 2628	−27.8	× 3201 / 23632	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,712	2440.5	− 2436	4.5	× 3631 / 23524	0.7
4	74,713	2481.0	− 2485	−4	× 3680 / 23524	−0.6
5	74,714	2499.3	− 2528	−28.7	× 3693 / 23524	−4.5
6	74,715	2502.8	− 2552	−49.2	× 3234 / 23524	−6.8
7	74,716	2536.6	− 2567	−30.4	× 3053 / 23524	−3.9
8	74,717	2541.2	− 2586	−44.8	× 3108 / 23524	−5.9
11	74,718	2599.0	− 2628	−29	× 3125 / 23524	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,706	2436.0	− 2436	0	× 3697 / 23487	0
4	74,707	2476.6	− 2485	−8.4	× 3639 / 23487	−1.3
5	74,708	2506.7	− 2528	−21.3	× 3628 / 23487	−3.3
6	74,709	2505.3	− 2552	−46.7	× 3160 / 23487	−6.3
7	74,710	2531.5	− 2567	−35.5	× 3189 / 23487	−4.8
8	74,711	2543.0	− 2586	−43	× 3113 / 23487	−5.7
11	74,712	2584.1	− 2628	−43.9	× 3061 / 23487	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,366	2434.3	− 2436	−1.7	× 3675 / 23543	−0.3
4	74,367	2475.8	− 2485	−9.2	× 3695 / 23543	−1.4
5	74,368	2501.8	− 2528	−26.2	× 3625 / 23543	−4
6	74,369	2513.1	− 2552	−38.9	× 3120 / 23543	−5.2
7	74,370	2541.4	− 2567	−25.6	× 3133 / 23543	−3.4
8	74,371	2547.5	− 2586	−38.5	× 3209 / 23543	−5.2
11	74,372	2586.5	− 2628	−41.5	× 3086 / 23543	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −14, −12, −9, −11, −10, 46, −25, −25, −27, −25 → −11.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2021: 56 · 2021→2022: 71 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 15.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.4 × 2.66 = 41. Upper limit 29.8, lower limit −52.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.