Buena Vista/ Horace Mann K-8: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,418	2424.7	− 2436	−11.3	× 58 / 356	−1.8
4	78,420	2421.8	− 2485	−63.2	× 64 / 356	−11.4
5	78,423	2471.8	− 2528	−56.2	× 63 / 356	−9.9
6	78,424	2508.4	− 2552	−43.6	× 56 / 356	−6.9
7	78,426	2494.1	− 2567	−72.9	× 57 / 356	−11.7
8	78,428	2555.6	− 2586	−30.4	× 58 / 356	−5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,615	2374.9	− 2436	−61.1	× 63 / 364	−10.6
4	72,617	2437.3	− 2485	−47.7	× 65 / 364	−8.5
5	72,618	2444.4	− 2528	−83.6	× 65 / 364	−14.9
6	72,621	2492.3	− 2552	−59.7	× 61 / 364	−10
7	72,623	2516.4	− 2567	−50.6	× 50 / 364	−7
8	72,625	2533.5	− 2586	−52.5	× 60 / 364	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,587	2382.7	− 2436	−53.3	× 61 / 366	−8.9
4	74,589	2431.5	− 2485	−53.5	× 63 / 366	−9.2
5	74,591	2466.0	− 2528	−62	× 63 / 366	−10.7
6	74,593	2464.4	− 2552	−87.6	× 63 / 366	−15.1
7	74,595	2500.3	− 2567	−66.7	× 63 / 366	−11.5
8	74,597	2537.2	− 2586	−48.8	× 53 / 366	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,761	2375.1	− 2436	−60.9	× 66 / 374	−10.7
4	74,762	2447.2	− 2485	−37.8	× 63 / 374	−6.4
5	74,765	2436.5	− 2528	−91.5	× 62 / 374	−15.2
6	74,766	2512.6	− 2552	−39.4	× 58 / 374	−6.1
7	74,769	2499.4	− 2567	−67.6	× 59 / 374	−10.7
8	74,770	2551.6	− 2586	−34.4	× 66 / 374	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,289	2371.6	− 2436	−64.4	× 58 / 355	−10.5
4	75,290	2410.9	− 2485	−74.1	× 66 / 355	−13.8
5	75,291	2470.9	− 2528	−57.1	× 64 / 355	−10.3
6	75,292	2459.1	− 2552	−92.9	× 56 / 355	−14.7
7	75,293	2531.8	− 2567	−35.2	× 62 / 355	−6.1
8	75,294	2519.0	− 2586	−67	× 49 / 355	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,471	2347.8	− 2436	−88.2	× 66 / 377	−15.4
4	75,472	2406.6	− 2485	−78.4	× 61 / 377	−12.7
5	75,473	2437.7	− 2528	−90.3	× 70 / 377	−16.8
6	75,474	2459.8	− 2552	−92.2	× 65 / 377	−15.9
7	75,475	2498.2	− 2567	−68.8	× 62 / 377	−11.3
8	75,476	2509.2	− 2586	−76.8	× 53 / 377	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,441	2342.8	− 2436	−93.2	× 64 / 391	−15.3
4	75,442	2409.0	− 2485	−76	× 65 / 391	−12.6
5	75,443	2422.9	− 2528	−105.1	× 66 / 391	−17.7
6	75,444	2481.0	− 2552	−71	× 67 / 391	−12.2
7	75,445	2500.7	− 2567	−66.3	× 64 / 391	−10.9
8	75,446	2495.1	− 2586	−90.9	× 65 / 391	−15.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,453	2329.6	− 2436	−106.4	× 67 / 389	−18.3
4	75,454	2420.7	− 2485	−64.3	× 65 / 389	−10.7
5	75,455	2403.0	− 2528	−125	× 66 / 389	−21.2
6	75,456	2434.6	− 2552	−117.4	× 62 / 389	−18.7
7	75,457	2509.0	− 2567	−58	× 66 / 389	−9.8
8	75,458	2485.6	− 2586	−100.4	× 63 / 389	−16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,113	2350.3	− 2436	−85.7	× 64 / 387	−14.2
4	75,114	2396.5	− 2485	−88.5	× 66 / 387	−15.1
5	75,115	2397.5	− 2528	−130.5	× 68 / 387	−22.9
6	75,116	2419.3	− 2552	−132.7	× 66 / 387	−22.6
7	75,117	2465.0	− 2567	−102	× 61 / 387	−16.1
8	75,118	2485.6	− 2586	−100.4	× 62 / 387	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −47, −60, −62, −55, −65, −83, −84, −95, −107 → −73.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 18 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 9.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.3 × 2.66 = 24.7. Upper limit −48.4, lower limit −97.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.