Carmichael (Bessie)/Fec: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	77,898	2410.8	− 2436	−25.2	× 63 / 380	−4.2
4	77,901	2456.2	− 2485	−28.8	× 69 / 380	−5.2
5	77,902	2450.5	− 2528	−77.5	× 67 / 380	−13.7
6	77,905	2487.9	− 2552	−64.1	× 59 / 380	−10
7	77,906	2525.6	− 2567	−41.4	× 62 / 380	−6.8
8	77,909	2512.1	− 2586	−73.9	× 60 / 380	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,093	2418.8	− 2436	−17.2	× 67 / 382	−3
4	72,094	2450.1	− 2485	−34.9	× 64 / 382	−5.8
5	72,096	2481.3	− 2528	−46.7	× 62 / 382	−7.6
6	72,098	2425.1	− 2552	−126.9	× 64 / 382	−21.3
7	72,100	2518.7	− 2567	−48.3	× 60 / 382	−7.6
8	72,103	2503.6	− 2586	−82.4	× 65 / 382	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,067	2406.6	− 2436	−29.4	× 70 / 376	−5.5
4	74,069	2430.4	− 2485	−54.6	× 61 / 376	−8.9
5	74,071	2459.9	− 2528	−68.1	× 57 / 376	−10.3
6	74,072	2495.2	− 2552	−56.8	× 63 / 376	−9.5
7	74,074	2486.5	− 2567	−80.5	× 63 / 376	−13.5
8	74,076	2516.7	− 2586	−69.3	× 62 / 376	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,241	2394.7	− 2436	−41.3	× 70 / 368	−7.9
4	74,242	2443.7	− 2485	−41.3	× 60 / 368	−6.7
5	74,245	2450.0	− 2528	−78	× 54 / 368	−11.4
6	74,246	2435.1	− 2552	−116.9	× 58 / 368	−18.4
7	74,249	2531.0	− 2567	−36	× 63 / 368	−6.2
8	74,250	2487.4	− 2586	−98.6	× 63 / 368	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,767	2382.0	− 2436	−54	× 68 / 374	−9.8
4	74,768	2421.2	− 2485	−63.8	× 65 / 374	−11.1
5	74,769	2451.7	− 2528	−76.3	× 57 / 374	−11.6
6	74,770	2470.4	− 2552	−81.6	× 62 / 374	−13.5
7	74,771	2484.3	− 2567	−82.7	× 58 / 374	−12.8
8	74,772	2530.5	− 2586	−55.5	× 64 / 374	−9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,951	2365.2	− 2436	−70.8	× 65 / 352	−13.1
4	74,952	2415.9	− 2485	−69.1	× 53 / 352	−10.4
5	74,953	2397.0	− 2528	−131	× 52 / 352	−19.4
6	74,954	2431.9	− 2552	−120.1	× 60 / 352	−20.5
7	74,955	2430.2	− 2567	−136.8	× 58 / 352	−22.5
8	74,956	2432.7	− 2586	−153.3	× 64 / 352	−27.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,921	2325.3	− 2436	−110.7	× 59 / 331	−19.7
4	74,922	2403.6	− 2485	−81.4	× 64 / 331	−15.7
5	74,923	2413.3	− 2528	−114.7	× 59 / 331	−20.4
6	74,924	2415.6	− 2552	−136.4	× 51 / 331	−21
7	74,925	2460.1	− 2567	−106.9	× 51 / 331	−16.5
8	74,926	2438.5	− 2586	−147.5	× 47 / 331	−20.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,933	2319.4	− 2436	−116.6	× 50 / 314	−18.6
4	74,934	2369.8	− 2485	−115.2	× 52 / 314	−19.1
5	74,935	2403.3	− 2528	−124.7	× 60 / 314	−23.8
6	74,936	2427.1	− 2552	−124.9	× 53 / 314	−21.1
7	74,937	2430.4	− 2567	−136.6	× 52 / 314	−22.6
8	74,938	2459.8	− 2586	−126.2	× 47 / 314	−18.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−124

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	74,593	2354.1	− 2436	−81.9	× 56 / 323	−14.2
4	74,594	2347.1	− 2485	−137.9	× 45 / 323	−19.2
5	74,595	2380.6	− 2528	−147.4	× 58 / 323	−26.5
6	74,596	2429.6	− 2552	−122.4	× 61 / 323	−23.1
7	74,597	2432.3	− 2567	−134.7	× 48 / 323	−20
8	74,598	2417.6	− 2586	−168.4	× 55 / 323	−28.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−132

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −51, −59, −59, −68, −68, −114, −114, −124, −132 → −87.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2022: 46 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit −60.8, lower limit −114.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.