Mitchell Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,924	2418.8	− 2436	−17.2	× 64 / 260	−4.2
4	49,927	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 72 / 260	−12.5
5	49,928	2483.6	− 2528	−44.4	× 61 / 260	−10.4
6	49,931	2522.4	− 2552	−29.6	× 63 / 260	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,394	2428.4	− 2436	−7.6	× 63 / 249	−1.9
4	46,395	2471.7	− 2485	−13.3	× 59 / 249	−3.2
5	46,397	2491.9	− 2528	−36.1	× 72 / 249	−10.4
6	46,399	2531.9	− 2552	−20.1	× 55 / 249	−4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,637	2436.5	− 2436	0.5	× 61 / 260	0.1
4	47,639	2474.9	− 2485	−10.1	× 63 / 260	−2.4
5	47,641	2493.8	− 2528	−34.2	× 63 / 260	−8.3
6	47,643	2526.3	− 2552	−25.7	× 73 / 260	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,641	2433.9	− 2436	−2.1	× 66 / 261	−0.5
4	47,643	2494.7	− 2485	9.7	× 64 / 261	2.4
5	47,645	2500.1	− 2528	−27.9	× 67 / 261	−7.2
6	47,647	2532.2	− 2552	−19.8	× 64 / 261	−4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,825	2447.0	− 2436	11	× 60 / 248	2.7
4	47,826	2494.2	− 2485	9.2	× 65 / 248	2.4
5	47,827	2498.0	− 2528	−30	× 63 / 248	−7.6
6	47,828	2510.6	− 2552	−41.4	× 60 / 248	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,685	2419.6	− 2436	−16.4	× 55 / 221	−4.1
4	47,686	2469.1	− 2485	−15.9	× 61 / 221	−4.4
5	47,687	2443.7	− 2528	−84.3	× 46 / 221	−17.5
6	47,688	2519.0	− 2552	−33	× 59 / 221	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,667	2451.3	− 2436	15.3	× 45 / 202	3.4
4	47,668	2454.2	− 2485	−30.8	× 52 / 202	−7.9
5	47,669	2480.6	− 2528	−47.4	× 58 / 202	−13.6
6	47,670	2476.4	− 2552	−75.6	× 47 / 202	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,520	2444.1	− 2436	8.1	× 50 / 214	1.9
4	47,521	2472.7	− 2485	−12.3	× 50 / 214	−2.9
5	47,522	2457.6	− 2528	−70.4	× 56 / 214	−18.4
6	47,523	2509.8	− 2552	−42.2	× 58 / 214	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,276	2414.1	− 2436	−21.9	× 59 / 216	−6
4	47,277	2473.9	− 2485	−11.1	× 50 / 216	−2.6
5	47,278	2484.9	− 2528	−43.1	× 50 / 216	−10
6	47,279	2514.8	− 2552	−37.2	× 57 / 216	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −34, −20, −18, −10, −13, −35, −36, −31, −28 → −25
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 7.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.3 × 2.66 = 19.4. Upper limit −5.6, lower limit −44.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.