Merton E. Hill Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,915	2417.9	− 2436	−18.1	× 49 / 217	−4.1
4	49,916	2467.7	− 2485	−17.3	× 57 / 217	−4.5
5	49,919	2496.1	− 2528	−31.9	× 51 / 217	−7.5
6	49,920	2519.8	− 2552	−32.2	× 60 / 217	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,384	2457.4	− 2436	21.4	× 48 / 210	4.9
4	46,386	2482.3	− 2485	−2.7	× 49 / 210	−0.6
5	46,387	2495.5	− 2528	−32.5	× 64 / 210	−9.9
6	46,390	2524.9	− 2552	−27.1	× 49 / 210	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,628	2454.2	− 2436	18.2	× 41 / 204	3.7
4	47,630	2466.8	− 2485	−18.2	× 48 / 204	−4.3
5	47,632	2501.5	− 2528	−26.5	× 53 / 204	−6.9
6	47,634	2516.0	− 2552	−36	× 62 / 204	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,631	2488.5	− 2436	52.5	× 38 / 162	12.3
4	47,633	2494.8	− 2485	9.8	× 37 / 162	2.2
5	47,635	2494.6	− 2528	−33.4	× 42 / 162	−8.7
6	47,637	2570.1	− 2552	18.1	× 45 / 162	5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,815	2490.9	− 2436	54.9	× 64 / 183	19.2
4	47,816	2535.6	− 2485	50.6	× 41 / 183	11.3
5	47,817	2527.8	− 2528	−0.2	× 37 / 183	0
6	47,818	2550.8	− 2552	−1.2	× 41 / 183	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						30

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,675	2453.4	− 2436	17.4	× 34 / 161	3.7
4	47,676	2479.2	− 2485	−5.8	× 33 / 161	−1.2
5	47,677	2499.8	− 2528	−28.2	× 34 / 161	−6
6	47,678	2591.6	− 2552	39.6	× 60 / 161	14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,657	2455.6	− 2436	19.6	× 37 / 142	5.1
4	47,658	2529.1	− 2485	44.1	× 35 / 142	10.9
5	47,659	2499.2	− 2528	−28.8	× 33 / 142	−6.7
6	47,660	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 37 / 142	−4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,510	2467.4	− 2436	31.4	× 34 / 140	7.6
4	47,511	2506.8	− 2485	21.8	× 34 / 140	5.3
5	47,512	2552.4	− 2528	24.4	× 37 / 140	6.4
6	47,513	2545.1	− 2552	−6.9	× 35 / 140	−1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,266	2484.3	− 2436	48.3	× 23 / 128	8.7
4	47,267	2499.1	− 2485	14.1	× 33 / 128	3.6
5	47,268	2535.3	− 2528	7.3	× 34 / 128	1.9
6	47,269	2596.2	− 2552	44.2	× 38 / 128	13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						27

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −25, −12, −18, 11, 30, 11, 5, 18, 27 → 5.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 29 · 2018→2019: 19 · 2019→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 14.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.3 × 2.66 = 38. Upper limit 43.2, lower limit −32.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.