El Gabilan Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,058	2364.7	− 2436	−71.3	× 112 / 419	−19.1
4	46,059	2403.4	− 2485	−81.6	× 108 / 419	−21
5	46,062	2438.6	− 2528	−89.4	× 103 / 419	−22
6	46,063	2441.7	− 2552	−110.3	× 96 / 419	−25.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,759	2373.3	− 2436	−62.7	× 112 / 440	−16
4	42,761	2386.2	− 2485	−98.8	× 112 / 440	−25.1
5	42,764	2406.9	− 2528	−121.1	× 109 / 440	−30
6	42,765	2433.6	− 2552	−118.4	× 107 / 440	−28.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,835	2375.2	− 2436	−60.8	× 114 / 437	−15.9
4	43,837	2395.5	− 2485	−89.5	× 115 / 437	−23.6
5	43,839	2389.5	− 2528	−138.5	× 103 / 437	−32.6
6	43,840	2405.3	− 2552	−146.7	× 105 / 437	−35.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,851	2410.7	− 2436	−25.3	× 73 / 397	−4.7
4	43,854	2392.8	− 2485	−92.2	× 115 / 397	−26.7
5	43,855	2425.6	− 2528	−102.4	× 110 / 397	−28.4
6	43,858	2399.9	− 2552	−152.1	× 99 / 397	−37.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,983	2409.8	− 2436	−26.2	× 100 / 403	−6.5
4	43,984	2415.8	− 2485	−69.2	× 85 / 403	−14.6
5	43,985	2436.8	− 2528	−91.2	× 110 / 403	−24.9
6	43,986	2425.8	− 2552	−126.2	× 108 / 403	−33.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,733	2426.5	− 2436	−9.5	× 71 / 315	−2.1
4	43,734	2409.4	− 2485	−75.6	× 80 / 315	−19.2
5	43,735	2450.9	− 2528	−77.1	× 83 / 315	−20.3
6	43,736	2461.4	− 2552	−90.6	× 81 / 315	−23.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,725	2365.4	− 2436	−70.6	× 52 / 289	−12.7
4	43,726	2414.0	− 2485	−71	× 80 / 289	−19.7
5	43,727	2423.7	− 2528	−104.3	× 78 / 289	−28.2
6	43,728	2468.2	− 2552	−83.8	× 79 / 289	−22.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,547	2378.5	− 2436	−57.5	× 83 / 288	−16.6
4	43,548	2399.6	− 2485	−85.4	× 50 / 288	−14.8
5	43,549	2447.1	− 2528	−80.9	× 79 / 288	−22.2
6	43,550	2464.5	− 2552	−87.5	× 76 / 288	−23.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,296	2341.4	− 2436	−94.6	× 76 / 292	−24.6
4	43,297	2405.5	− 2485	−79.5	× 84 / 292	−22.9
5	43,298	2401.6	− 2528	−126.4	× 54 / 292	−23.4
6	43,299	2476.6	− 2552	−75.4	× 78 / 292	−20.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −87, −100, −107, −98, −80, −65, −83, −77, −91 → −87.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 18 · 2019→2022: 15 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 12.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.5 × 2.66 = 33.3. Upper limit −54.3, lower limit −120.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.