Monterey: math · Schoolio

The shaded band is this county's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,239	2387.2	− 2436	−48.8	× 6285 / 39280	−7.8
4	45,242	2424.5	− 2485	−60.5	× 6114 / 39280	−9.4
5	45,243	2455.4	− 2528	−72.6	× 5826 / 39280	−10.8
6	45,246	2472.7	− 2552	−79.3	× 5674 / 39280	−11.5
7	45,247	2490.3	− 2567	−76.7	× 5495 / 39280	−10.7
8	45,250	2510.7	− 2586	−75.3	× 5340 / 39280	−10.2
11	45,251	2525.6	− 2628	−102.4	× 4546 / 39280	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,943	2399.6	− 2436	−36.4	× 6102 / 39985	−5.6
4	41,946	2430.8	− 2485	−54.2	× 6247 / 39985	−8.5
5	41,948	2458.3	− 2528	−69.7	× 6066 / 39985	−10.6
6	41,950	2473.0	− 2552	−79	× 5751 / 39985	−11.4
7	41,952	2491.4	− 2567	−75.6	× 5556 / 39985	−10.5
8	41,953	2510.9	− 2586	−75.1	× 5502 / 39985	−10.3
11	41,955	2544.2	− 2628	−83.8	× 4761 / 39985	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,985	2402.7	− 2436	−33.3	× 6045 / 40609	−5
4	42,987	2432.9	− 2485	−52.1	× 6109 / 40609	−7.8
5	42,988	2458.7	− 2528	−69.3	× 6279 / 40609	−10.7
6	42,991	2470.9	− 2552	−81.1	× 5976 / 40609	−11.9
7	42,993	2490.4	− 2567	−76.6	× 5689 / 40609	−10.7
8	42,994	2505.3	− 2586	−80.7	× 5554 / 40609	−11
11	42,996	2532.8	− 2628	−95.2	× 4957 / 40609	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,988	2407.3	− 2436	−28.7	× 5758 / 40870	−4
4	42,989	2436.4	− 2485	−48.6	× 6055 / 40870	−7.2
5	42,992	2463.3	− 2528	−64.7	× 6121 / 40870	−9.7
6	42,993	2470.9	− 2552	−81.1	× 6126 / 40870	−12.2
7	42,996	2483.3	− 2567	−83.7	× 5929 / 40870	−12.1
8	42,997	2502.7	− 2586	−83.3	× 5638 / 40870	−11.5
11	43,000	2529.8	− 2628	−98.2	× 5243 / 40870	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,111	2411.5	− 2436	−24.5	× 5773 / 40765	−3.5
4	43,112	2444.3	− 2485	−40.7	× 5772 / 40765	−5.8
5	43,113	2467.1	− 2528	−60.9	× 5988 / 40765	−8.9
6	43,114	2480.0	− 2552	−72	× 6049 / 40765	−10.7
7	43,115	2489.4	− 2567	−77.6	× 6001 / 40765	−11.4
8	43,116	2501.4	− 2586	−84.6	× 5888 / 40765	−12.2
11	43,117	2528.9	− 2628	−99.1	× 5294 / 40765	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,983	2416.9	− 2436	−19.1	× 512 / 3671	−2.7
4	41,984	2451.7	− 2485	−33.3	× 586 / 3671	−5.3
5	41,985	2475.2	− 2528	−52.8	× 527 / 3671	−7.6
6	41,986	2516.5	− 2552	−35.5	× 400 / 3671	−3.9
7	41,987	2568.0	− 2567	1	× 432 / 3671	0.1
8	41,988	2567.2	− 2586	−18.8	× 381 / 3671	−2
11	41,989	2528.7	− 2628	−99.3	× 833 / 3671	−22.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,846	2386.3	− 2436	−49.7	× 5323 / 38305	−6.9
4	42,847	2420.4	− 2485	−64.6	× 5517 / 38305	−9.3
5	42,848	2444.1	− 2528	−83.9	× 5630 / 38305	−12.3
6	42,849	2464.9	− 2552	−87.1	× 5453 / 38305	−12.4
7	42,850	2476.8	− 2567	−90.2	× 5352 / 38305	−12.6
8	42,851	2485.2	− 2586	−100.8	× 5582 / 38305	−14.7
11	42,852	2511.0	− 2628	−117	× 5448 / 38305	−16.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,855	2393.8	− 2436	−42.2	× 5287 / 37781	−5.9
4	42,856	2425.1	− 2485	−59.9	× 5330 / 37781	−8.5
5	42,857	2446.9	− 2528	−81.1	× 5489 / 37781	−11.8
6	42,858	2466.8	− 2552	−85.2	× 5556 / 37781	−12.5
7	42,859	2476.0	− 2567	−91	× 5307 / 37781	−12.8
8	42,860	2480.6	− 2586	−105.4	× 5260 / 37781	−14.7
11	42,861	2508.8	− 2628	−119.2	× 5552 / 37781	−17.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,684	2393.4	− 2436	−42.6	× 5227 / 37328	−6
4	42,685	2430.8	− 2485	−54.2	× 5264 / 37328	−7.6
5	42,686	2449.4	− 2528	−78.6	× 5294 / 37328	−11.1
6	42,687	2465.9	− 2552	−86.1	× 5396 / 37328	−12.4
7	42,688	2479.4	− 2567	−87.6	× 5353 / 37328	−12.6
8	42,689	2483.6	− 2586	−102.4	× 5271 / 37328	−14.5
11	42,690	2514.8	− 2628	−113.2	× 5523 / 37328	−16.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,435	2397.6	− 2436	−38.4	× 5171 / 36949	−5.4
4	42,436	2430.1	− 2485	−54.9	× 5236 / 36949	−7.8
5	42,437	2457.1	− 2528	−70.9	× 5286 / 36949	−10.1
6	42,438	2473.1	− 2552	−78.9	× 5282 / 36949	−11.3
7	42,439	2480.8	− 2567	−86.2	× 5253 / 36949	−12.3
8	42,440	2494.7	− 2586	−91.3	× 5336 / 36949	−13.2
11	42,441	2519.7	− 2628	−108.3	× 5385 / 36949	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −72, −67, −69, −69, −65, −44, −85, −84, −81, −76 → −71.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2021: 21 · 2021→2022: 41 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 9.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.1 × 2.66 = 24.2. Upper limit −47, lower limit −95.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a county, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.