Carmel Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,513	2479.6	− 2436	43.6	× 196 / 1310	6.5
4	45,515	2512.3	− 2485	27.3	× 174 / 1310	3.6
5	45,518	2568.0	− 2528	40	× 171 / 1310	5.2
6	45,519	2587.4	− 2552	35.4	× 183 / 1310	4.9
7	45,522	2612.2	− 2567	45.2	× 198 / 1310	6.8
8	45,523	2630.5	− 2586	44.5	× 197 / 1310	6.7
11	45,526	2636.6	− 2628	8.6	× 191 / 1310	1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,219	2484.6	− 2436	48.6	× 186 / 1314	6.9
4	42,222	2516.3	− 2485	31.3	× 194 / 1314	4.6
5	42,224	2563.2	− 2528	35.2	× 187 / 1314	5
6	42,226	2602.3	− 2552	50.3	× 172 / 1314	6.6
7	42,227	2617.7	− 2567	50.7	× 185 / 1314	7.1
8	42,230	2632.7	− 2586	46.7	× 190 / 1314	6.8
11	42,232	2666.1	− 2628	38.1	× 200 / 1314	5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						43

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,277	2481.3	− 2436	45.3	× 188 / 1340	6.4
4	43,278	2511.1	− 2485	26.1	× 190 / 1340	3.7
5	43,280	2548.2	− 2528	20.2	× 197 / 1340	3
6	43,282	2592.6	− 2552	40.6	× 194 / 1340	5.9
7	43,284	2623.4	− 2567	56.4	× 178 / 1340	7.5
8	43,287	2634.5	− 2586	48.5	× 191 / 1340	6.9
11	43,289	2651.0	− 2628	23	× 202 / 1340	3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,294	2485.2	− 2436	49.2	× 163 / 1330	6
4	43,295	2520.1	− 2485	35.1	× 196 / 1330	5.2
5	43,298	2537.5	− 2528	9.5	× 190 / 1330	1.4
6	43,299	2581.5	− 2552	29.5	× 195 / 1330	4.3
7	43,302	2612.8	− 2567	45.8	× 205 / 1330	7.1
8	43,303	2630.5	− 2586	44.5	× 171 / 1330	5.7
11	43,306	2660.3	− 2628	32.3	× 210 / 1330	5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,420	2490.3	− 2436	54.3	× 167 / 1368	6.6
4	43,421	2531.7	− 2485	46.7	× 170 / 1368	5.8
5	43,422	2557.7	− 2528	29.7	× 208 / 1368	4.5
6	43,423	2572.5	− 2552	20.5	× 193 / 1368	2.9
7	43,424	2606.2	− 2567	39.2	× 206 / 1368	5.9
8	43,425	2632.3	− 2586	46.3	× 206 / 1368	7
11	43,426	2665.2	− 2628	37.2	× 218 / 1368	5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						39

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,257	2461.6	− 2436	25.6	× 145 / 1060	3.5
4	42,258	2503.4	− 2485	18.4	× 152 / 1060	2.6
5	42,259	2542.3	− 2528	14.3	× 148 / 1060	2
6	42,260	2556.6	− 2552	4.6	× 137 / 1060	0.6
7	42,261	2603.3	− 2567	36.3	× 182 / 1060	6.2
8	42,262	2575.4	− 2586	−10.6	× 145 / 1060	−1.5
11	42,263	2653.2	− 2628	25.2	× 151 / 1060	3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,124	2482.3	− 2436	46.3	× 135 / 1165	5.4
4	43,125	2523.9	− 2485	38.9	× 157 / 1165	5.2
5	43,126	2544.1	− 2528	16.1	× 151 / 1165	2.1
6	43,127	2561.0	− 2552	9	× 144 / 1165	1.1
7	43,128	2595.2	− 2567	28.2	× 165 / 1165	4
8	43,129	2624.3	− 2586	38.3	× 193 / 1165	6.3
11	43,130	2634.1	− 2628	6.1	× 220 / 1165	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						25

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,142	2490.8	− 2436	54.8	× 151 / 1089	7.6
4	43,143	2540.4	− 2485	55.4	× 139 / 1089	7.1
5	43,144	2556.6	− 2528	28.6	× 155 / 1089	4.1
6	43,145	2562.6	− 2552	10.6	× 153 / 1089	1.5
7	43,146	2584.1	− 2567	17.1	× 149 / 1089	2.3
8	43,147	2616.8	− 2586	30.8	× 159 / 1089	4.5
11	43,148	2604.9	− 2628	−23.1	× 183 / 1089	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						23

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,970	2500.5	− 2436	64.5	× 138 / 1074	8.3
4	42,971	2538.3	− 2485	53.3	× 157 / 1074	7.8
5	42,972	2558.1	− 2528	30.1	× 137 / 1074	3.8
6	42,973	2563.4	− 2552	11.4	× 146 / 1074	1.5
7	42,974	2587.9	− 2567	20.9	× 150 / 1074	2.9
8	42,975	2596.4	− 2586	10.4	× 140 / 1074	1.4
11	42,976	2620.1	− 2628	−7.9	× 206 / 1074	−1.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						24

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,725	2496.6	− 2436	60.6	× 162 / 1119	8.8
4	42,726	2544.1	− 2485	59.1	× 145 / 1119	7.7
5	42,727	2554.2	− 2528	26.2	× 161 / 1119	3.8
6	42,728	2560.8	− 2552	8.8	× 143 / 1119	1.1
7	42,729	2594.5	− 2567	27.5	× 161 / 1119	4
8	42,730	2598.0	− 2586	12	× 161 / 1119	1.7
11	42,731	2661.5	− 2628	33.5	× 186 / 1119	5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						33

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 35, 43, 37, 35, 39, 17, 25, 23, 24, 33 → 31.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2021: 22 · 2021→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 6.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.9 × 2.66 = 18.4. Upper limit 49.5, lower limit 12.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.