Ethel I. Baker Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,559	2352.6	− 2432	−79.4	× 114 / 435	−20.8
4	61,561	2388.9	− 2473	−84.1	× 109 / 435	−21.1
5	61,563	2430.3	− 2502	−71.7	× 115 / 435	−19
6	61,565	2472.0	− 2531	−59	× 97 / 435	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,119	2330.3	− 2432	−101.7	× 116 / 450	−26.2
4	57,121	2401.5	− 2473	−71.5	× 112 / 450	−17.8
5	57,123	2421.7	− 2502	−80.3	× 106 / 450	−18.9
6	57,125	2451.9	− 2531	−79.1	× 116 / 450	−20.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,794	2328.2	− 2432	−103.8	× 90 / 399	−23.4
4	58,796	2369.7	− 2473	−103.3	× 113 / 399	−29.3
5	58,798	2414.0	− 2502	−88	× 100 / 399	−22.1
6	58,800	2444.7	− 2531	−86.3	× 96 / 399	−20.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,909	2335.8	− 2432	−96.2	× 83 / 369	−21.6
4	58,912	2362.3	− 2473	−110.7	× 90 / 369	−27
5	58,913	2406.0	− 2502	−96	× 107 / 369	−27.8
6	58,916	2435.1	− 2531	−95.9	× 89 / 369	−23.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,160	2333.6	− 2432	−98.4	× 106 / 389	−26.8
4	59,161	2349.2	− 2473	−123.8	× 98 / 389	−31.2
5	59,162	2384.7	− 2502	−117.3	× 84 / 389	−25.3
6	59,163	2438.1	− 2531	−92.9	× 101 / 389	−24.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,243	2330.5	− 2432	−101.5	× 58 / 304	−19.4
4	59,244	2393.8	− 2473	−79.2	× 78 / 304	−20.3
5	59,245	2418.4	− 2502	−83.6	× 76 / 304	−20.9
6	59,246	2440.8	− 2531	−90.2	× 92 / 304	−27.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,201	2305.4	− 2432	−126.6	× 89 / 321	−35.1
4	59,202	2366.1	− 2473	−106.9	× 77 / 321	−25.6
5	59,203	2408.5	− 2502	−93.5	× 81 / 321	−23.6
6	59,204	2424.5	− 2531	−106.5	× 74 / 321	−24.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,132	2303.8	− 2432	−128.2	× 85 / 325	−33.5
4	59,133	2373.9	− 2473	−99.1	× 86 / 325	−26.2
5	59,134	2407.1	− 2502	−94.9	× 74 / 325	−21.6
6	59,135	2435.1	− 2531	−95.9	× 80 / 325	−23.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,889	2317.4	− 2432	−114.6	× 88 / 341	−29.6
4	58,890	2379.2	− 2473	−93.8	× 89 / 341	−24.5
5	58,891	2396.5	− 2502	−105.5	× 87 / 341	−26.9
6	58,892	2432.1	− 2531	−98.9	× 77 / 341	−22.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−103

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −74, −83, −95, −100, −107, −88, −109, −105, −103 → −96
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 21 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 9.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.9 × 2.66 = 26.3. Upper limit −69.7, lower limit −122.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.