Ethel I. Baker Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,558	2374.8	− 2436	−61.2	× 117 / 439	−16.3
4	61,560	2394.7	− 2485	−90.3	× 109 / 439	−22.4
5	61,562	2414.9	− 2528	−113.1	× 116 / 439	−29.9
6	61,564	2459.8	− 2552	−92.2	× 97 / 439	−20.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,120	2341.3	− 2436	−94.7	× 116 / 453	−24.2
4	57,122	2425.3	− 2485	−59.7	× 113 / 453	−14.9
5	57,124	2396.2	− 2528	−131.8	× 106 / 453	−30.8
6	57,126	2429.0	− 2552	−123	× 118 / 453	−32
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,795	2342.9	− 2436	−93.1	× 92 / 407	−21
4	58,797	2385.8	− 2485	−99.2	× 117 / 407	−28.5
5	58,799	2427.9	− 2528	−100.1	× 101 / 407	−24.8
6	58,801	2456.0	− 2552	−96	× 97 / 407	−22.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,910	2351.6	− 2436	−84.4	× 83 / 368	−19
4	58,911	2382.1	− 2485	−102.9	× 89 / 368	−24.9
5	58,914	2413.1	− 2528	−114.9	× 107 / 368	−33.4
6	58,915	2450.7	− 2552	−101.3	× 89 / 368	−24.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,165	2369.6	− 2436	−66.4	× 106 / 391	−18
4	59,166	2370.7	− 2485	−114.3	× 99 / 391	−28.9
5	59,167	2384.8	− 2528	−143.2	× 85 / 391	−31.1
6	59,168	2426.8	− 2552	−125.2	× 101 / 391	−32.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,248	2323.9	− 2436	−112.1	× 60 / 309	−21.8
4	59,249	2388.5	− 2485	−96.5	× 78 / 309	−24.4
5	59,250	2388.4	− 2528	−139.6	× 78 / 309	−35.2
6	59,251	2397.1	− 2552	−154.9	× 93 / 309	−46.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−128

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,206	2328.9	− 2436	−107.1	× 92 / 323	−30.5
4	59,207	2363.6	− 2485	−121.4	× 77 / 323	−28.9
5	59,208	2389.5	− 2528	−138.5	× 80 / 323	−34.3
6	59,209	2397.8	− 2552	−154.2	× 74 / 323	−35.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−129

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,137	2320.6	− 2436	−115.4	× 89 / 336	−30.6
4	59,138	2378.6	− 2485	−106.4	× 92 / 336	−29.1
5	59,139	2399.5	− 2528	−128.5	× 74 / 336	−28.3
6	59,140	2394.5	− 2552	−157.5	× 81 / 336	−38
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−126

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,894	2341.0	− 2436	−95	× 87 / 340	−24.3
4	58,895	2403.9	− 2485	−81.1	× 89 / 340	−21.2
5	58,896	2402.7	− 2528	−125.3	× 86 / 340	−31.7
6	58,897	2405.9	− 2552	−146.1	× 78 / 340	−33.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −89, −102, −97, −102, −110, −128, −129, −126, −111 → −110.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 18 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 15 → average 8.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.5 × 2.66 = 22.6. Upper limit −87.8, lower limit −133.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.