Elder Creek Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,549	2350.0	− 2432	−82	× 122 / 430	−23.3
4	61,551	2412.0	− 2473	−61	× 101 / 430	−14.3
5	61,553	2448.7	− 2502	−53.3	× 115 / 430	−14.3
6	61,555	2508.1	− 2531	−22.9	× 92 / 430	−4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,109	2377.9	− 2432	−54.1	× 108 / 464	−12.6
4	57,112	2407.1	− 2473	−65.9	× 119 / 464	−16.9
5	57,114	2454.9	− 2502	−47.1	× 117 / 464	−11.9
6	57,115	2492.5	− 2531	−38.5	× 120 / 464	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,785	2372.0	− 2432	−60	× 112 / 467	−14.4
4	58,786	2408.2	− 2473	−64.8	× 118 / 467	−16.4
5	58,788	2444.2	− 2502	−57.8	× 119 / 467	−14.7
6	58,791	2486.1	− 2531	−44.9	× 118 / 467	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,900	2398.8	− 2432	−33.2	× 89 / 434	−6.8
4	58,901	2421.6	− 2473	−51.4	× 116 / 434	−13.7
5	58,904	2451.3	− 2502	−50.7	× 117 / 434	−13.7
6	58,905	2497.2	− 2531	−33.8	× 112 / 434	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,150	2387.9	− 2432	−44.1	× 115 / 441	−11.5
4	59,151	2452.7	− 2473	−20.3	× 89 / 441	−4.1
5	59,152	2463.7	− 2502	−38.3	× 121 / 441	−10.5
6	59,153	2515.1	− 2531	−15.9	× 116 / 441	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,233	2370.8	− 2432	−61.2	× 111 / 429	−15.8
4	59,234	2393.5	− 2473	−79.5	× 108 / 429	−20
5	59,235	2455.2	− 2502	−46.8	× 107 / 429	−11.7
6	59,236	2487.7	− 2531	−43.3	× 103 / 429	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,191	2362.4	− 2432	−69.6	× 100 / 437	−15.9
4	59,192	2396.1	− 2473	−76.9	× 119 / 437	−20.9
5	59,193	2422.6	− 2502	−79.4	× 111 / 437	−20.2
6	59,194	2481.1	− 2531	−49.9	× 107 / 437	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,122	2357.2	− 2432	−74.8	× 108 / 442	−18.3
4	59,123	2431.8	− 2473	−41.2	× 107 / 442	−10
5	59,124	2451.9	− 2502	−50.1	× 118 / 442	−13.4
6	59,125	2484.2	− 2531	−46.8	× 109 / 442	−11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,879	2361.9	− 2432	−70.1	× 98 / 422	−16.3
4	58,880	2418.3	− 2473	−54.7	× 106 / 422	−13.7
5	58,881	2436.3	− 2502	−65.7	× 106 / 422	−16.5
6	58,882	2495.9	− 2531	−35.1	× 112 / 422	−9.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −57, −51, −57, −43, −30, −58, −69, −53, −56 → −52.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2022: 28 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 16 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 12.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.1 × 2.66 = 32.2. Upper limit −20.5, lower limit −84.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.