Old Adobe Union: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,591	2414.3	− 2436	−21.7	× 253 / 964	−5.7
4	94,592	2455.2	− 2485	−29.8	× 217 / 964	−6.7
5	94,595	2464.2	− 2528	−63.8	× 247 / 964	−16.3
6	94,596	2511.6	− 2552	−40.4	× 247 / 964	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,834	2422.8	− 2436	−13.2	× 216 / 953	−3
4	87,835	2467.3	− 2485	−17.7	× 256 / 953	−4.8
5	87,838	2484.3	− 2528	−43.7	× 229 / 953	−10.5
6	87,840	2521.0	− 2552	−31	× 252 / 953	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,362	2439.8	− 2436	3.8	× 237 / 946	1
4	90,364	2470.6	− 2485	−14.4	× 218 / 946	−3.3
5	90,366	2492.2	− 2528	−35.8	× 258 / 946	−9.8
6	90,369	2524.6	− 2552	−27.4	× 233 / 946	−6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,562	2451.7	− 2436	15.7	× 225 / 934	3.8
4	90,563	2485.8	− 2485	0.8	× 228 / 934	0.2
5	90,566	2484.2	− 2528	−43.8	× 223 / 934	−10.5
6	90,568	2529.4	− 2552	−22.6	× 258 / 934	−6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,192	2447.4	− 2436	11.4	× 237 / 910	3
4	91,193	2484.7	− 2485	−0.3	× 216 / 910	−0.1
5	91,194	2506.7	− 2528	−21.3	× 233 / 910	−5.5
6	91,195	2526.1	− 2552	−25.9	× 224 / 910	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,446	2418.0	− 2436	−18	× 227 / 946	−4.3
4	91,447	2475.8	− 2485	−9.2	× 265 / 946	−2.6
5	91,448	2476.7	− 2528	−51.3	× 241 / 946	−13.1
6	91,449	2519.5	− 2552	−32.5	× 213 / 946	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,334	2429.6	− 2436	−6.4	× 257 / 973	−1.7
4	91,335	2465.7	− 2485	−19.3	× 222 / 973	−4.4
5	91,336	2489.8	− 2528	−38.2	× 262 / 973	−10.3
6	91,337	2510.8	− 2552	−41.2	× 232 / 973	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,281	2432.7	− 2436	−3.3	× 233 / 948	−0.8
4	91,282	2475.0	− 2485	−10	× 243 / 948	−2.6
5	91,283	2485.3	− 2528	−42.7	× 214 / 948	−9.6
6	91,284	2514.8	− 2552	−37.2	× 258 / 948	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,985	2442.5	− 2436	6.5	× 216 / 907	1.5
4	90,986	2471.8	− 2485	−13.2	× 231 / 907	−3.4
5	90,987	2494.3	− 2528	−33.7	× 247 / 907	−9.2
6	90,988	2521.7	− 2552	−30.3	× 213 / 907	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,638	2432.9	− 2436	−3.1	× 241 / 923	−0.8
4	90,639	2490.3	− 2485	5.3	× 218 / 923	1.3
5	90,640	2506.4	− 2528	−21.6	× 221 / 923	−5.2
6	90,641	2531.9	− 2552	−20.1	× 243 / 923	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −39, −26, −19, −13, −9, −27, −26, −23, −18, −10 → −21
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 18 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 5 · 2025→2026: 8 → average 7.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.2 × 2.66 = 19.2. Upper limit −1.8, lower limit −40.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Old Adobe Union