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The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,590	2406.3	− 2432	−25.7	× 253 / 963	−6.8
4	94,593	2454.6	− 2473	−18.4	× 217 / 963	−4.1
5	94,594	2489.8	− 2502	−12.2	× 246 / 963	−3.1
6	94,597	2537.5	− 2531	6.5	× 247 / 963	1.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,833	2418.1	− 2432	−13.9	× 214 / 949	−3.1
4	87,836	2463.7	− 2473	−9.3	× 255 / 949	−2.5
5	87,837	2499.4	− 2502	−2.6	× 229 / 949	−0.6
6	87,839	2542.3	− 2531	11.3	× 251 / 949	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,363	2429.4	− 2432	−2.6	× 234 / 940	−0.6
4	90,365	2462.9	− 2473	−10.1	× 217 / 940	−2.3
5	90,367	2495.7	− 2502	−6.3	× 258 / 940	−1.7
6	90,368	2535.1	− 2531	4.1	× 231 / 940	1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,561	2426.7	− 2432	−5.3	× 225 / 937	−1.3
4	90,564	2475.2	− 2473	2.2	× 229 / 937	0.5
5	90,565	2501.1	− 2502	−0.9	× 224 / 937	−0.2
6	90,567	2539.0	− 2531	8	× 259 / 937	2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,187	2433.4	− 2432	1.4	× 237 / 911	0.4
4	91,188	2471.4	− 2473	−1.6	× 216 / 911	−0.4
5	91,189	2519.6	− 2502	17.6	× 233 / 911	4.5
6	91,190	2537.0	− 2531	6	× 225 / 911	1.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,441	2404.4	− 2432	−27.6	× 226 / 947	−6.6
4	91,442	2470.6	− 2473	−2.4	× 267 / 947	−0.7
5	91,443	2478.6	− 2502	−23.4	× 239 / 947	−5.9
6	91,444	2514.3	− 2531	−16.7	× 215 / 947	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,329	2418.4	− 2432	−13.6	× 257 / 965	−3.6
4	91,330	2455.0	− 2473	−18	× 217 / 965	−4
5	91,331	2497.5	− 2502	−4.5	× 260 / 965	−1.2
6	91,332	2518.8	− 2531	−12.2	× 231 / 965	−2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,276	2420.3	− 2432	−11.7	× 233 / 946	−2.9
4	91,277	2465.3	− 2473	−7.7	× 241 / 946	−2
5	91,278	2488.0	− 2502	−14	× 214 / 946	−3.2
6	91,279	2524.1	− 2531	−6.9	× 258 / 946	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,980	2427.7	− 2432	−4.3	× 217 / 897	−1
4	90,981	2479.1	− 2473	6.1	× 227 / 897	1.5
5	90,982	2510.1	− 2502	8.1	× 242 / 897	2.2
6	90,983	2525.0	− 2531	−6	× 211 / 897	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,633	2423.5	− 2432	−8.5	× 241 / 922	−2.2
4	90,634	2479.3	− 2473	6.3	× 218 / 922	1.5
5	90,635	2515.1	− 2502	13.1	× 221 / 922	3.1
6	90,636	2542.2	− 2531	11.2	× 242 / 922	2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −12, −3, −4, 1, 6, −17, −12, −10, 1, 5 → −4.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 11 · 2025→2026: 4 → average 7.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.2 × 2.66 = 19.2. Upper limit 14.7, lower limit −23.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

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