College Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,798	2398.6	− 2436	−37.4	× 25 / 158	−5.9
4	84,799	2442.6	− 2485	−42.4	× 26 / 158	−7
5	84,802	2473.3	− 2528	−54.7	× 24 / 158	−8.3
6	84,803	2503.7	− 2552	−48.3	× 19 / 158	−5.8
7	84,806	2547.1	− 2567	−19.9	× 25 / 158	−3.1
8	84,807	2557.1	− 2586	−28.9	× 39 / 158	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,617	2439.5	− 2436	3.5	× 21 / 139	0.5
4	78,619	2432.4	− 2485	−52.6	× 23 / 139	−8.7
5	78,620	2466.0	− 2528	−62	× 26 / 139	−11.6
6	78,622	2505.9	− 2552	−46.1	× 25 / 139	−8.3
7	78,624	2534.7	− 2567	−32.3	× 18 / 139	−4.2
8	78,627	2546.5	− 2586	−39.5	× 26 / 139	−7.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,772	2469.1	− 2436	33.1	× 22 / 143	5.1
4	80,773	2472.5	− 2485	−12.5	× 21 / 143	−1.8
5	80,775	2443.0	− 2528	−85	× 24 / 143	−14.3
6	80,778	2512.0	− 2552	−40	× 27 / 143	−7.6
7	80,779	2528.0	− 2567	−39	× 26 / 143	−7.1
8	80,781	2552.0	− 2586	−34	× 23 / 143	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,925	2457.8	− 2436	21.8	× 20 / 133	3.3
4	80,926	2506.8	− 2485	21.8	× 21 / 133	3.4
5	80,929	2505.1	− 2528	−22.9	× 23 / 133	−4
6	80,930	2507.3	− 2552	−44.7	× 18 / 133	−6
7	80,933	2565.2	− 2567	−1.8	× 25 / 133	−0.3
8	80,934	2555.2	− 2586	−30.8	× 26 / 133	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,454	2404.8	− 2436	−31.2	× 17 / 127	−4.2
4	81,455	2512.2	− 2485	27.2	× 20 / 127	4.3
5	81,456	2503.6	− 2528	−24.4	× 24 / 127	−4.6
6	81,457	2536.8	− 2552	−15.2	× 24 / 127	−2.9
7	81,458	2505.2	− 2567	−61.8	× 18 / 127	−8.8
8	81,459	2579.3	− 2586	−6.7	× 24 / 127	−1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,808	2388.5	− 2436	−47.5	× 24 / 129	−8.8
4	79,809	2448.5	− 2485	−36.5	× 21 / 129	−5.9
5	79,810	2431.1	− 2528	−96.9	× 16 / 129	−12
6	79,811	2462.6	− 2552	−89.4	× 16 / 129	−11.1
7	79,812	2508.6	− 2567	−58.4	× 22 / 129	−10
8	79,813	2554.1	− 2586	−31.9	× 30 / 129	−7.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,675	2462.7	− 2436	26.7	× 15 / 119	3.4
4	81,676	2510.3	− 2485	25.3	× 23 / 119	4.9
5	81,677	2465.0	− 2528	−63	× 21 / 119	−11.1
6	81,678	2580.2	− 2552	28.2	× 14 / 119	3.3
7	81,679	2488.7	− 2567	−78.3	× 22 / 119	−14.5
8	81,680	2538.9	− 2586	−47.1	× 24 / 119	−9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,639	2447.5	− 2436	11.5	× 23 / 134	2
4	81,640	2491.8	− 2485	6.8	× 16 / 134	0.8
5	81,641	2481.7	− 2528	−46.3	× 24 / 134	−8.3
6	81,642	2549.8	− 2552	−2.2	× 27 / 134	−0.4
7	81,643	2498.4	− 2567	−68.6	× 22 / 134	−11.3
8	81,644	2482.3	− 2586	−103.7	× 22 / 134	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,651	2467.4	− 2436	31.4	× 13 / 117	3.5
4	81,652	2469.3	− 2485	−15.7	× 24 / 117	−3.2
5	81,653	2513.0	− 2528	−15	× 14 / 117	−1.8
6	81,654	2499.4	− 2552	−52.6	× 23 / 117	−10.3
7	81,655	2521.2	− 2567	−45.8	× 26 / 117	−10.2
8	81,656	2543.8	− 2586	−42.2	× 17 / 117	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,319	2444.3	− 2436	8.3	× 16 / 112	1.2
4	81,320	2476.9	− 2485	−8.1	× 14 / 112	−1
5	81,321	2479.8	− 2528	−48.2	× 20 / 112	−8.6
6	81,322	2545.8	− 2552	−6.2	× 15 / 112	−0.8
7	81,323	2529.6	− 2567	−37.4	× 21 / 112	−7
8	81,324	2538.5	− 2586	−47.5	× 26 / 112	−11
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,241	2427.9	− 2436	−8.1	× 21 / 116	−1.5
4	81,242	2469.9	− 2485	−15.1	× 18 / 116	−2.3
5	81,243	2442.1	− 2528	−85.9	× 15 / 116	−11.1
6	81,244	2513.7	− 2552	−38.3	× 20 / 116	−6.6
7	81,245	2522.3	− 2567	−44.7	× 19 / 116	−7.3
8	81,246	2519.8	− 2586	−66.2	× 23 / 116	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −37, −40, −31, −10, −17, −55, −24, −34, −28, −27, −42 → −31.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 21 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 38 · 2021→2022: 31 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 15 → average 14.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.1 × 2.66 = 37.5. Upper limit 6.1, lower limit −68.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

College Elementary