Waugh Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,747	2474.3	− 2436	38.3	× 117 / 536	8.4
4	95,748	2486.0	− 2485	1	× 137 / 536	0.3
5	95,751	2526.8	− 2528	−1.2	× 139 / 536	−0.3
6	95,752	2539.1	− 2552	−12.9	× 143 / 536	−3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,848	2464.8	− 2436	28.8	× 117 / 496	6.8
4	88,850	2505.8	− 2485	20.8	× 115 / 496	4.8
5	88,852	2528.3	− 2528	0.3	× 135 / 496	0.1
6	88,854	2569.7	− 2552	17.7	× 129 / 496	4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,405	2479.9	− 2436	43.9	× 114 / 486	10.3
4	91,406	2498.2	− 2485	13.2	× 121 / 486	3.3
5	91,408	2532.8	− 2528	4.8	× 117 / 486	1.2
6	91,411	2575.2	− 2552	23.2	× 134 / 486	6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						21

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,597	2471.9	− 2436	35.9	× 122 / 466	9.4
4	91,600	2515.0	− 2485	30	× 111 / 466	7.1
5	91,601	2508.1	− 2528	−19.9	× 120 / 466	−5.1
6	91,604	2593.6	− 2552	41.6	× 113 / 466	10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						22

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,242	2460.7	− 2436	24.7	× 131 / 484	6.7
4	92,243	2507.1	− 2485	22.1	× 121 / 484	5.5
5	92,244	2543.5	− 2528	15.5	× 113 / 484	3.6
6	92,245	2577.3	− 2552	25.3	× 119 / 484	6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						22

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,284	2426.3	− 2436	−9.7	× 85 / 376	−2.2
4	90,285	2482.3	− 2485	−2.7	× 92 / 376	−0.7
5	90,286	2511.3	− 2528	−16.7	× 94 / 376	−4.2
6	90,287	2552.7	− 2552	0.7	× 105 / 376	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,492	2484.4	− 2436	48.4	× 90 / 410	10.6
4	92,493	2481.8	− 2485	−3.2	× 103 / 410	−0.8
5	92,494	2526.4	− 2528	−1.6	× 102 / 410	−0.4
6	92,495	2576.1	− 2552	24.1	× 115 / 410	6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,400	2473.3	− 2436	37.3	× 128 / 432	11.1
4	92,401	2530.9	− 2485	45.9	× 99 / 432	10.5
5	92,402	2532.9	− 2528	4.9	× 104 / 432	1.2
6	92,403	2573.9	− 2552	21.9	× 101 / 432	5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						28

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,297	2472.2	− 2436	36.2	× 108 / 442	8.8
4	92,298	2523.7	− 2485	38.7	× 124 / 442	10.9
5	92,299	2546.8	− 2528	18.8	× 111 / 442	4.7
6	92,300	2566.9	− 2552	14.9	× 99 / 442	3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						28

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,015	2462.3	− 2436	26.3	× 115 / 460	6.6
4	92,016	2521.2	− 2485	36.2	× 111 / 460	8.7
5	92,017	2530.9	− 2528	2.9	× 122 / 460	0.8
6	92,018	2593.7	− 2552	41.7	× 112 / 460	10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						26

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 5, 16, 21, 22, 22, −7, 16, 28, 28, 26 → 17.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2021: 29 · 2021→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 9.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.2 × 2.66 = 24.5. Upper limit 42.2, lower limit −6.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.