Don Callejon: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,179	2484.5	− 2436	48.5	× 90 / 646	6.8
4	89,182	2546.5	− 2485	61.5	× 102 / 646	9.7
5	89,183	2576.1	− 2528	48.1	× 80 / 646	6
6	89,186	2490.5	− 2552	−61.5	× 132 / 646	−12.6
7	89,187	2505.3	− 2567	−61.7	× 121 / 646	−11.6
8	89,190	2520.5	− 2586	−65.5	× 121 / 646	−12.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,718	2498.2	− 2436	62.2	× 97 / 648	9.3
4	82,719	2534.2	− 2485	49.2	× 83 / 648	6.3
5	82,722	2575.9	− 2528	47.9	× 92 / 648	6.8
6	82,723	2510.4	− 2552	−41.6	× 135 / 648	−8.7
7	82,726	2529.2	− 2567	−37.8	× 121 / 648	−7.1
8	82,728	2534.1	− 2586	−51.9	× 120 / 648	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,007	2504.5	− 2436	68.5	× 98 / 625	10.7
4	85,009	2535.8	− 2485	50.8	× 92 / 625	7.5
5	85,012	2572.0	− 2528	44	× 80 / 625	5.6
6	85,013	2548.4	− 2552	−3.6	× 134 / 625	−0.8
7	85,016	2518.1	− 2567	−48.9	× 112 / 625	−8.8
8	85,018	2526.9	− 2586	−59.1	× 109 / 625	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,223	2514.9	− 2436	78.9	× 77 / 624	9.7
4	85,226	2548.7	− 2485	63.7	× 93 / 624	9.5
5	85,227	2563.7	− 2528	35.7	× 82 / 624	4.7
6	85,230	2504.4	− 2552	−47.6	× 145 / 624	−11.1
7	85,231	2515.1	− 2567	−51.9	× 121 / 624	−10.1
8	85,234	2526.7	− 2586	−59.3	× 106 / 624	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,820	2501.8	− 2436	65.8	× 92 / 619	9.8
4	85,821	2552.5	− 2485	67.5	× 73 / 619	8
5	85,822	2584.9	− 2528	56.9	× 81 / 619	7.4
6	85,823	2530.6	− 2552	−21.4	× 145 / 619	−5
7	85,824	2498.5	− 2567	−68.5	× 114 / 619	−12.6
8	85,825	2515.1	− 2586	−70.9	× 114 / 619	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,015	2481.4	− 2436	45.4	× 63 / 500	5.7
4	86,016	2541.7	− 2485	56.7	× 65 / 500	7.4
5	86,017	2577.1	− 2528	49.1	× 65 / 500	6.4
6	86,018	2575.8	− 2552	23.8	× 84 / 500	4
7	86,019	2492.7	− 2567	−74.3	× 99 / 500	−14.7
8	86,020	2525.5	− 2586	−60.5	× 124 / 500	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,933	2464.7	− 2436	28.7	× 58 / 406	4.1
4	85,934	2513.7	− 2485	28.7	× 54 / 406	3.8
5	85,935	2566.8	− 2528	38.8	× 60 / 406	5.7
6	85,936	2590.4	− 2552	38.4	× 69 / 406	6.5
7	85,937	2529.1	− 2567	−37.9	× 54 / 406	−5
8	85,938	2490.1	− 2586	−95.9	× 111 / 406	−26.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,925	2509.1	− 2436	73.1	× 49 / 333	10.8
4	85,926	2527.7	− 2485	42.7	× 54 / 333	6.9
5	85,927	2528.1	− 2528	0.1	× 53 / 333	0
6	85,928	2591.8	− 2552	39.8	× 77 / 333	9.2
7	85,929	2562.1	− 2567	−4.9	× 49 / 333	−0.7
8	85,930	2539.9	− 2586	−46.1	× 51 / 333	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,611	2497.3	− 2436	61.3	× 64 / 344	11.4
4	85,612	2550.9	− 2485	65.9	× 46 / 344	8.8
5	85,613	2556.0	− 2528	28	× 51 / 344	4.2
6	85,614	2556.6	− 2552	4.6	× 58 / 344	0.8
7	85,615	2590.8	− 2567	23.8	× 69 / 344	4.8
8	85,616	2541.0	− 2586	−45	× 56 / 344	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						23

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −14, −3, 4, −7, −6, −6, −11, 19, 23 → −0.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 0 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 30 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 8.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.6 × 2.66 = 22.9. Upper limit 22.8, lower limit −23.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.