O. S. Hubbard Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,131	2404.5	− 2436	−31.5	× 95 / 282	−10.6
4	86,134	2432.7	− 2485	−52.3	× 93 / 282	−17.2
5	86,135	2495.3	− 2528	−32.7	× 94 / 282	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,946	2423.9	− 2436	−12.1	× 74 / 265	−3.4
4	79,948	2428.3	− 2485	−56.7	× 99 / 265	−21.2
5	79,951	2495.9	− 2528	−32.1	× 92 / 265	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,134	2410.8	− 2436	−25.2	× 81 / 307	−6.6
4	82,136	2443.0	− 2485	−42	× 73 / 307	−10
5	82,137	2483.4	− 2528	−44.6	× 88 / 307	−12.8
6	82,140	2479.4	− 2552	−72.6	× 65 / 307	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,333	2394.1	− 2436	−41.9	× 80 / 338	−9.9
4	82,334	2429.5	− 2485	−55.5	× 76 / 338	−12.5
5	82,337	2495.0	− 2528	−33	× 62 / 338	−6.1
6	82,338	2461.0	− 2552	−91	× 61 / 338	−16.4
7	82,341	2561.8	− 2567	−5.2	× 59 / 338	−0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,950	2411.4	− 2436	−24.6	× 75 / 376	−4.9
4	82,951	2403.9	− 2485	−81.1	× 79 / 376	−17
5	82,952	2439.0	− 2528	−89	× 62 / 376	−14.7
6	82,953	2519.8	− 2552	−32.2	× 51 / 376	−4.4
7	82,954	2477.7	− 2567	−89.3	× 54 / 376	−12.8
8	82,955	2533.9	− 2586	−52.1	× 55 / 376	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,137	2360.1	− 2436	−75.9	× 52 / 343	−11.5
4	83,138	2383.3	− 2485	−101.7	× 77 / 343	−22.8
5	83,139	2404.1	− 2528	−123.9	× 64 / 343	−23.1
6	83,140	2482.2	− 2552	−69.8	× 56 / 343	−11.4
7	83,141	2456.6	− 2567	−110.4	× 55 / 343	−17.7
8	83,142	2420.3	− 2586	−165.7	× 39 / 343	−18.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,108	2342.1	− 2436	−93.9	× 46 / 319	−13.5
4	83,109	2392.6	− 2485	−92.4	× 51 / 319	−14.8
5	83,110	2402.1	− 2528	−125.9	× 62 / 319	−24.5
6	83,111	2459.1	− 2552	−92.9	× 52 / 319	−15.1
7	83,112	2448.5	− 2567	−118.5	× 53 / 319	−19.7
8	83,113	2429.8	− 2586	−156.2	× 55 / 319	−26.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	83,117	2386.8	− 2436	−49.2	× 48 / 300	−7.9
4	83,118	2358.0	− 2485	−127	× 43 / 300	−18.2
5	83,119	2414.7	− 2528	−113.3	× 44 / 300	−16.6
6	83,120	2456.9	− 2552	−95.1	× 64 / 300	−20.3
7	83,121	2418.5	− 2567	−148.5	× 48 / 300	−23.8
8	83,122	2433.6	− 2586	−152.4	× 53 / 300	−26.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,797	2336.8	− 2436	−99.2	× 40 / 274	−14.5
4	82,798	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 46 / 274	−11.7
5	82,799	2370.7	− 2528	−157.3	× 43 / 274	−24.7
6	82,800	2437.0	− 2552	−115	× 41 / 274	−17.2
7	82,801	2433.4	− 2567	−133.6	× 53 / 274	−25.8
8	82,802	2448.1	− 2586	−137.9	× 51 / 274	−25.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−120

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −39, −36, −45, −46, −61, −105, −115, −114, −120 → −75.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 44 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 11.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.1 × 2.66 = 29.5. Upper limit −46.2, lower limit −105.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.