John Muir: math · Schoolio

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,859	2442.0	− 2436	6	× 27 / 209	0.8
4	73,861	2469.9	− 2485	−15.1	× 47 / 209	−3.4
5	73,863	2475.6	− 2528	−52.4	× 28 / 209	−7
6	73,865	2562.4	− 2552	10.4	× 35 / 209	1.7
7	73,867	2541.6	− 2567	−25.4	× 29 / 209	−3.5
8	73,869	2547.5	− 2586	−38.5	× 30 / 209	−5.5
11	73,871	2590.7	− 2628	−37.3	× 13 / 209	−2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,564	2460.2	− 2436	24.2	× 30 / 193	3.8
4	68,567	2491.2	− 2485	6.2	× 33 / 193	1.1
5	68,569	2498.3	− 2528	−29.7	× 38 / 193	−5.8
6	68,571	2519.6	− 2552	−32.4	× 32 / 193	−5.4
7	68,572	2572.1	− 2567	5.1	× 31 / 193	0.8
8	68,575	2550.8	− 2586	−35.2	× 29 / 193	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	70,386	2518.4	− 2485	33.4	× 29 / 168	5.8
5	70,387	2505.4	− 2528	−22.6	× 34 / 168	−4.6
6	70,390	2516.7	− 2552	−35.3	× 45 / 168	−9.5
7	70,391	2519.5	− 2567	−47.5	× 29 / 168	−8.2
8	70,394	2564.2	− 2586	−21.8	× 31 / 168	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	70,538	2548.0	− 2528	20	× 29 / 122	4.8
6	70,540	2522.0	− 2552	−30	× 29 / 122	−7.1
7	70,542	2532.3	− 2567	−34.7	× 37 / 122	−10.5
8	70,545	2524.8	− 2586	−61.2	× 27 / 122	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	71,026	2446.2	− 2485	−38.8	× 14 / 83	−6.5
6	71,028	2510.2	− 2552	−41.8	× 20 / 83	−10.1
7	71,029	2527.4	− 2567	−39.6	× 21 / 83	−10
8	71,030	2542.8	− 2586	−43.2	× 28 / 83	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,127	2408.1	− 2436	−27.9	× 28 / 90	−8.7
4	71,128	2433.5	− 2485	−51.5	× 14 / 90	−8
6	71,130	2520.0	− 2552	−32	× 14 / 90	−5
7	71,131	2524.0	− 2567	−43	× 21 / 90	−10
8	71,132	2511.0	− 2586	−75	× 13 / 90	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,125	2467.7	− 2436	31.7	× 24 / 98	7.8
4	71,126	2446.7	− 2485	−38.3	× 28 / 98	−10.9
5	71,127	2469.1	− 2528	−58.9	× 15 / 98	−9
7	71,129	2560.9	− 2567	−6.1	× 12 / 98	−0.7
8	71,130	2524.7	− 2586	−61.3	× 19 / 98	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,103	2459.8	− 2436	23.8	× 20 / 116	4.1
4	71,104	2479.2	− 2485	−5.8	× 24 / 116	−1.2
5	71,105	2456.6	− 2528	−71.4	× 31 / 116	−19.1
6	71,106	2480.1	− 2552	−71.9	× 15 / 116	−9.3
7	71,107	2513.1	− 2567	−53.9	× 13 / 116	−6
8	71,108	2592.6	− 2586	6.6	× 13 / 116	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,823	2442.2	− 2436	6.2	× 27 / 130	1.3
4	70,824	2498.7	− 2485	13.7	× 21 / 130	2.2
5	70,825	2563.5	− 2528	35.5	× 23 / 130	6.3
6	70,826	2539.9	− 2552	−12.1	× 30 / 130	−2.8
7	70,827	2529.1	− 2567	−37.9	× 16 / 130	−4.7
8	70,828	2517.2	− 2586	−68.8	× 13 / 130	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −19, −11, −20, −26, −41, −43, −25, −31, −5 → −24.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 26 → average 11.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.3 × 2.66 = 30.1. Upper limit 5.5, lower limit −54.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.