John Muir: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,858	2461.6	− 2432	29.6	× 27 / 209	3.8
4	73,860	2457.8	− 2473	−15.2	× 47 / 209	−3.4
5	73,862	2476.2	− 2502	−25.8	× 28 / 209	−3.5
6	73,864	2568.1	− 2531	37.1	× 35 / 209	6.2
7	73,866	2542.2	− 2552	−9.8	× 29 / 209	−1.4
8	73,868	2571.2	− 2567	4.2	× 30 / 209	0.6
11	73,870	2615.8	− 2583	32.8	× 13 / 209	2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,565	2484.7	− 2432	52.7	× 30 / 193	8.2
4	68,566	2495.2	− 2473	22.2	× 33 / 193	3.8
5	68,568	2504.2	− 2502	2.2	× 38 / 193	0.4
6	68,570	2529.5	− 2531	−1.5	× 32 / 193	−0.2
7	68,573	2568.1	− 2552	16.1	× 31 / 193	2.6
8	68,574	2568.8	− 2567	1.8	× 29 / 193	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	70,385	2518.0	− 2473	45	× 29 / 168	7.8
5	70,388	2513.9	− 2502	11.9	× 34 / 168	2.4
6	70,389	2523.1	− 2531	−7.9	× 45 / 168	−2.1
7	70,392	2552.4	− 2552	0.4	× 29 / 168	0.1
8	70,393	2601.3	− 2567	34.3	× 31 / 168	6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	70,539	2543.8	− 2502	41.8	× 29 / 121	10
6	70,541	2519.1	− 2531	−11.9	× 28 / 121	−2.8
7	70,543	2546.5	− 2552	−5.5	× 37 / 121	−1.7
8	70,544	2559.7	− 2567	−7.3	× 27 / 121	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	71,019	2400.2	− 2473	−72.8	× 15 / 84	−13
6	71,021	2471.9	− 2531	−59.1	× 20 / 84	−14.1
7	71,022	2553.8	− 2552	1.8	× 21 / 84	0.5
8	71,023	2558.5	− 2567	−8.5	× 28 / 84	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,120	2392.1	− 2432	−39.9	× 28 / 91	−12.3
4	71,121	2426.9	− 2473	−46.1	× 14 / 91	−7.1
6	71,123	2480.8	− 2531	−50.2	× 14 / 91	−7.7
7	71,124	2524.9	− 2552	−27.1	× 21 / 91	−6.3
8	71,125	2548.1	− 2567	−18.9	× 14 / 91	−2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,118	2434.4	− 2432	2.4	× 24 / 98	0.6
4	71,119	2424.8	− 2473	−48.2	× 28 / 98	−13.8
5	71,120	2483.5	− 2502	−18.5	× 15 / 98	−2.8
7	71,122	2548.3	− 2552	−3.7	× 12 / 98	−0.5
8	71,123	2542.8	− 2567	−24.2	× 19 / 98	−4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,096	2441.0	− 2432	9	× 20 / 116	1.6
4	71,097	2467.2	− 2473	−5.8	× 24 / 116	−1.2
5	71,098	2479.2	− 2502	−22.8	× 31 / 116	−6.1
6	71,099	2523.7	− 2531	−7.3	× 15 / 116	−0.9
7	71,100	2501.5	− 2552	−50.5	× 13 / 116	−5.7
8	71,101	2600.5	− 2567	33.5	× 13 / 116	3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,816	2465.9	− 2432	33.9	× 27 / 129	7.1
4	70,817	2489.2	− 2473	16.2	× 21 / 129	2.6
5	70,818	2569.1	− 2502	67.1	× 23 / 129	12
6	70,819	2586.9	− 2531	55.9	× 29 / 129	12.6
7	70,820	2565.7	− 2552	13.7	× 16 / 129	1.7
8	70,821	2545.2	− 2567	−21.8	× 13 / 129	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						34

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 4, 15, 14, 4, −29, −36, −21, −9, 34 → −2.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 33 · 2019→2022: 7 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 43 → average 16.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16.5 × 2.66 = 43.9. Upper limit 41.2, lower limit −46.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.