Ira Harbison: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,771	2418.3	− 2436	−17.7	× 90 / 326	−4.9
4	72,773	2438.9	− 2485	−46.1	× 86 / 326	−12.2
5	72,775	2455.9	− 2528	−72.1	× 82 / 326	−18.1
6	72,777	2520.9	− 2552	−31.1	× 68 / 326	−6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,556	2420.0	− 2436	−16	× 87 / 347	−4
4	67,559	2472.1	− 2485	−12.9	× 89 / 347	−3.3
5	67,560	2465.8	− 2528	−62.2	× 88 / 347	−15.8
6	67,563	2474.0	− 2552	−78	× 83 / 347	−18.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,344	2423.5	− 2436	−12.5	× 71 / 335	−2.6
4	69,346	2459.9	− 2485	−25.1	× 82 / 335	−6.1
5	69,348	2482.7	− 2528	−45.3	× 98 / 335	−13.3
6	69,350	2505.5	− 2552	−46.5	× 84 / 335	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,506	2416.1	− 2436	−19.9	× 71 / 324	−4.4
4	69,509	2465.5	− 2485	−19.5	× 72 / 324	−4.3
5	69,510	2472.0	− 2528	−56	× 88 / 324	−15.2
6	69,513	2525.4	− 2552	−26.6	× 93 / 324	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,029	2397.7	− 2436	−38.3	× 70 / 304	−8.8
4	70,030	2441.4	− 2485	−43.6	× 72 / 304	−10.3
5	70,031	2462.5	− 2528	−65.5	× 75 / 304	−16.2
6	70,032	2485.0	− 2552	−67	× 87 / 304	−19.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,123	2354.7	− 2436	−81.3	× 56 / 217	−21
4	70,124	2423.8	− 2485	−61.2	× 43 / 217	−12.1
5	70,125	2449.2	− 2528	−78.8	× 62 / 217	−22.5
6	70,126	2459.3	− 2552	−92.7	× 56 / 217	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,127	2400.0	− 2436	−36	× 56 / 205	−9.8
4	70,128	2432.8	− 2485	−52.2	× 59 / 205	−15
5	70,129	2483.6	− 2528	−44.4	× 35 / 205	−7.6
6	70,130	2532.5	− 2552	−19.5	× 55 / 205	−5.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,111	2402.7	− 2436	−33.3	× 46 / 194	−7.9
4	70,112	2440.4	− 2485	−44.6	× 54 / 194	−12.4
5	70,113	2432.3	− 2528	−95.7	× 57 / 194	−28.1
6	70,114	2524.8	− 2552	−27.2	× 37 / 194	−5.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,823	2405.5	− 2436	−30.5	× 47 / 208	−6.9
4	69,824	2466.2	− 2485	−18.8	× 48 / 208	−4.3
5	69,825	2471.2	− 2528	−56.8	× 55 / 208	−15
6	69,826	2490.7	− 2552	−61.3	× 58 / 208	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −42, −42, −34, −32, −54, −80, −38, −54, −43 → −46.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 0 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 22 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 42 · 2023→2024: 16 · 2024→2025: 11 → average 15.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.9 × 2.66 = 42.3. Upper limit −4.3, lower limit −88.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.