Ira Harbison: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,772	2416.2	− 2432	−15.8	× 90 / 327	−4.3
4	72,774	2469.4	− 2473	−3.6	× 86 / 327	−0.9
5	72,776	2505.0	− 2502	3	× 83 / 327	0.8
6	72,778	2551.3	− 2531	20.3	× 68 / 327	4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	67,557	2404.0	− 2432	−28	× 87 / 347	−7
4	67,558	2488.0	− 2473	15	× 89 / 347	3.8
5	67,561	2485.0	− 2502	−17	× 88 / 347	−4.3
6	67,562	2522.2	− 2531	−8.8	× 83 / 347	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,343	2410.6	− 2432	−21.4	× 71 / 335	−4.5
4	69,345	2458.1	− 2473	−14.9	× 82 / 335	−3.6
5	69,347	2510.3	− 2502	8.3	× 98 / 335	2.4
6	69,349	2535.3	− 2531	4.3	× 84 / 335	1.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,507	2414.3	− 2432	−17.7	× 70 / 323	−3.8
4	69,508	2471.6	− 2473	−1.4	× 72 / 323	−0.3
5	69,511	2480.5	− 2502	−21.5	× 88 / 323	−5.9
6	69,512	2545.8	− 2531	14.8	× 93 / 323	4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,024	2387.9	− 2432	−44.1	× 70 / 304	−10.2
4	70,025	2450.6	− 2473	−22.4	× 72 / 304	−5.3
5	70,026	2484.3	− 2502	−17.7	× 75 / 304	−4.4
6	70,027	2506.2	− 2531	−24.8	× 87 / 304	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,118	2360.9	− 2432	−71.1	× 56 / 216	−18.4
4	70,119	2452.0	− 2473	−21	× 43 / 216	−4.2
5	70,120	2480.2	− 2502	−21.8	× 62 / 216	−6.3
6	70,121	2498.7	− 2531	−32.3	× 55 / 216	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,122	2403.8	− 2432	−28.2	× 55 / 201	−7.7
4	70,123	2416.2	− 2473	−56.8	× 58 / 201	−16.4
5	70,124	2518.4	− 2502	16.4	× 34 / 201	2.8
6	70,125	2549.4	− 2531	18.4	× 54 / 201	4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,106	2395.7	− 2432	−36.3	× 46 / 193	−8.7
4	70,107	2428.0	− 2473	−45	× 53 / 193	−12.4
5	70,108	2444.2	− 2502	−57.8	× 57 / 193	−17.1
6	70,109	2559.7	− 2531	28.7	× 37 / 193	5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,818	2394.0	− 2432	−38	× 46 / 203	−8.6
4	69,819	2458.9	− 2473	−14.1	× 48 / 203	−3.3
5	69,820	2495.8	− 2502	−6.2	× 55 / 203	−1.7
6	69,821	2519.9	− 2531	−11.1	× 54 / 203	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 0, −10, −5, −6, −27, −37, −16, −33, −17 → −16.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 21 · 2019→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 21 · 2023→2024: 17 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 12.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.6 × 2.66 = 33.5. Upper limit 16.7, lower limit −50.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.