Isador Cohen Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,609	2418.3	− 2436	−17.7	× 31 / 153	−3.6
4	61,611	2438.4	− 2485	−46.6	× 47 / 153	−14.3
5	61,613	2448.6	− 2528	−79.4	× 35 / 153	−18.2
6	61,615	2492.8	− 2552	−59.2	× 40 / 153	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,170	2413.8	− 2436	−22.2	× 34 / 145	−5.2
4	57,171	2451.2	− 2485	−33.8	× 33 / 145	−7.7
5	57,173	2454.3	− 2528	−73.7	× 40 / 145	−20.3
6	57,176	2481.5	− 2552	−70.5	× 38 / 145	−18.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,845	2429.0	− 2436	−7	× 35 / 142	−1.7
4	58,846	2429.6	− 2485	−55.4	× 42 / 142	−16.4
5	58,849	2477.5	− 2528	−50.5	× 31 / 142	−11
6	58,850	2499.3	− 2552	−52.7	× 34 / 142	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,959	2442.6	− 2436	6.6	× 37 / 157	1.6
4	58,962	2447.6	− 2485	−37.4	× 47 / 157	−11.2
5	58,963	2443.2	− 2528	−84.8	× 47 / 157	−25.4
6	58,965	2529.0	− 2552	−23	× 26 / 157	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,215	2416.4	− 2436	−19.6	× 44 / 168	−5.1
4	59,216	2447.9	− 2485	−37.1	× 36 / 168	−8
5	59,217	2463.7	− 2528	−64.3	× 44 / 168	−16.8
6	59,218	2460.5	− 2552	−91.5	× 44 / 168	−24
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,298	2359.1	− 2436	−76.9	× 40 / 173	−17.8
4	59,299	2343.5	− 2485	−141.5	× 48 / 173	−39.3
5	59,300	2393.3	− 2528	−134.7	× 42 / 173	−32.7
6	59,301	2466.9	− 2552	−85.1	× 43 / 173	−21.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,256	2333.9	− 2436	−102.1	× 28 / 152	−18.8
4	59,257	2414.3	− 2485	−70.7	× 45 / 152	−20.9
5	59,258	2367.3	− 2528	−160.7	× 40 / 152	−42.3
6	59,259	2386.7	− 2552	−165.3	× 39 / 152	−42.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−124

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,187	2323.1	− 2436	−112.9	× 50 / 156	−36.2
4	59,188	2366.6	− 2485	−118.4	× 36 / 156	−27.3
5	59,189	2458.6	− 2528	−69.4	× 37 / 156	−16.5
6	59,190	2418.7	− 2552	−133.3	× 33 / 156	−28.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,944	2309.1	− 2436	−126.9	× 48 / 191	−31.9
4	58,945	2380.6	− 2485	−104.4	× 55 / 191	−30.1
5	58,946	2404.6	− 2528	−123.4	× 41 / 191	−26.5
6	58,947	2469.0	− 2552	−83	× 47 / 191	−20.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −52, −52, −42, −39, −54, −111, −124, −108, −109 → −76.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 0 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 57 · 2022→2023: 13 · 2023→2024: 16 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 14.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.4 × 2.66 = 38.3. Upper limit −38.5, lower limit −115.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.