H. W. Harkness Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,579	2337.6	− 2436	−98.4	× 56 / 202	−27.3
4	61,581	2386.6	− 2485	−98.4	× 54 / 202	−26.3
5	61,583	2416.5	− 2528	−111.5	× 32 / 202	−17.7
6	61,585	2468.2	− 2552	−83.8	× 60 / 202	−24.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−96

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,140	2350.5	− 2436	−85.5	× 52 / 181	−24.6
4	57,141	2420.1	− 2485	−64.9	× 49 / 181	−17.6
5	57,144	2452.5	− 2528	−75.5	× 47 / 181	−19.6
6	57,146	2482.1	− 2552	−69.9	× 33 / 181	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,815	2376.7	− 2436	−59.3	× 43 / 189	−13.5
4	58,817	2442.5	− 2485	−42.5	× 51 / 189	−11.5
5	58,819	2435.4	− 2528	−92.6	× 44 / 189	−21.6
6	58,820	2484.0	− 2552	−68	× 51 / 189	−18.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,930	2394.9	− 2436	−41.1	× 45 / 186	−9.9
4	58,931	2436.7	− 2485	−48.3	× 36 / 186	−9.3
5	58,934	2431.3	− 2528	−96.7	× 53 / 186	−27.6
6	58,935	2521.9	− 2552	−30.1	× 52 / 186	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,185	2369.9	− 2436	−66.1	× 47 / 177	−17.6
4	59,186	2451.6	− 2485	−33.4	× 45 / 177	−8.5
5	59,187	2436.7	− 2528	−91.3	× 38 / 177	−19.6
6	59,188	2500.9	− 2552	−51.1	× 47 / 177	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,268	2348.3	− 2436	−87.7	× 37 / 161	−20.2
4	59,269	2412.4	− 2485	−72.6	× 45 / 161	−20.3
5	59,270	2440.5	− 2528	−87.5	× 40 / 161	−21.7
6	59,271	2453.1	− 2552	−98.9	× 39 / 161	−24
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,226	2370.3	− 2436	−65.7	× 34 / 153	−14.6
4	59,227	2397.7	− 2485	−87.3	× 42 / 153	−24
5	59,228	2431.1	− 2528	−96.9	× 44 / 153	−27.9
6	59,229	2453.8	− 2552	−98.2	× 33 / 153	−21.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,157	2349.1	− 2436	−86.9	× 26 / 154	−14.7
4	59,158	2437.5	− 2485	−47.5	× 36 / 154	−11.1
5	59,159	2418.6	− 2528	−109.4	× 45 / 154	−32
6	59,160	2433.4	− 2552	−118.6	× 47 / 154	−36.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,914	2394.6	− 2436	−41.4	× 26 / 140	−7.7
4	58,915	2434.4	− 2485	−50.6	× 26 / 140	−9.4
5	58,916	2424.2	− 2528	−103.8	× 42 / 140	−31.1
6	58,917	2461.1	− 2552	−90.9	× 46 / 140	−29.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −96, −74, −65, −55, −59, −86, −88, −94, −78 → −77.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 22 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 27 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 12
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12 × 2.66 = 31.9. Upper limit −45.3, lower limit −109.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.