Los Padres Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,097	2384.3	− 2436	−51.7	× 125 / 450	−14.4
4	46,100	2422.1	− 2485	−62.9	× 118 / 450	−16.5
5	46,101	2457.5	− 2528	−70.5	× 112 / 450	−17.5
6	46,104	2487.4	− 2552	−64.6	× 95 / 450	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,800	2359.9	− 2436	−76.1	× 119 / 474	−19.1
4	42,802	2419.4	− 2485	−65.6	× 125 / 474	−17.3
5	42,804	2467.4	− 2528	−60.6	× 119 / 474	−15.2
6	42,805	2477.0	− 2552	−75	× 111 / 474	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,874	2378.1	− 2436	−57.9	× 107 / 469	−13.2
4	43,877	2404.6	− 2485	−80.4	× 117 / 469	−20.1
5	43,878	2435.5	− 2528	−92.5	× 123 / 469	−24.3
6	43,881	2492.8	− 2552	−59.2	× 122 / 469	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,891	2377.8	− 2436	−58.2	× 114 / 439	−15.1
4	43,894	2431.1	− 2485	−53.9	× 97 / 439	−11.9
5	43,895	2430.1	− 2528	−97.9	× 110 / 439	−24.5
6	43,898	2450.0	− 2552	−102	× 118 / 439	−27.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,023	2395.2	− 2436	−40.8	× 121 / 454	−10.9
4	44,024	2405.1	− 2485	−79.9	× 120 / 454	−21.1
5	44,025	2456.3	− 2528	−71.7	× 107 / 454	−16.9
6	44,026	2469.5	− 2552	−82.5	× 106 / 454	−19.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,773	2375.1	− 2436	−60.9	× 84 / 389	−13.2
4	43,774	2408.5	− 2485	−76.5	× 104 / 389	−20.5
5	43,775	2439.6	− 2528	−88.4	× 101 / 389	−23
6	43,776	2505.2	− 2552	−46.8	× 100 / 389	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,765	2383.2	− 2436	−52.8	× 86 / 377	−12
4	43,766	2413.6	− 2485	−71.4	× 86 / 377	−16.3
5	43,767	2425.0	− 2528	−103	× 103 / 377	−28.1
6	43,768	2508.9	− 2552	−43.1	× 102 / 377	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,587	2390.0	− 2436	−46	× 89 / 367	−11.2
4	43,588	2392.7	− 2485	−92.3	× 90 / 367	−22.6
5	43,589	2445.3	− 2528	−82.7	× 86 / 367	−19.4
6	43,590	2514.3	− 2552	−37.7	× 102 / 367	−10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,336	2375.2	− 2436	−60.8	× 102 / 363	−17.1
4	43,337	2423.7	− 2485	−61.3	× 90 / 363	−15.2
5	43,338	2472.9	− 2528	−55.1	× 83 / 363	−12.6
6	43,339	2539.4	− 2552	−12.6	× 88 / 363	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −62, −69, −73, −79, −68, −69, −68, −64, −48 → −66.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 1 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 6.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.3 × 2.66 = 16.8. Upper limit −49.9, lower limit −83.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.