Fort Bragg Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,188	2391.7	− 2436	−44.3	× 131 / 883	−6.6
4	43,189	2434.5	− 2485	−50.5	× 142 / 883	−8.1
5	43,192	2464.0	− 2528	−64	× 117 / 883	−8.5
6	43,193	2452.4	− 2552	−99.6	× 131 / 883	−14.8
7	43,196	2492.9	− 2567	−74.1	× 132 / 883	−11.1
8	43,197	2531.9	− 2586	−54.1	× 104 / 883	−6.4
11	43,200	2533.8	− 2628	−94.2	× 126 / 883	−13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,879	2419.6	− 2436	−16.4	× 127 / 909	−2.3
4	39,881	2464.3	− 2485	−20.7	× 133 / 909	−3
5	39,883	2492.2	− 2528	−35.8	× 143 / 909	−5.6
6	39,886	2485.2	− 2552	−66.8	× 114 / 909	−8.4
7	39,888	2462.7	− 2567	−104.3	× 142 / 909	−16.3
8	39,889	2504.9	− 2586	−81.1	× 134 / 909	−12
11	39,892	2537.4	− 2628	−90.6	× 116 / 909	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,903	2406.4	− 2436	−29.6	× 116 / 908	−3.8
4	40,905	2466.6	− 2485	−18.4	× 127 / 908	−2.6
5	40,907	2486.5	− 2528	−41.5	× 132 / 908	−6
6	40,908	2483.1	− 2552	−68.9	× 144 / 908	−10.9
7	40,910	2497.8	− 2567	−69.2	× 117 / 908	−8.9
8	40,912	2457.8	− 2586	−128.2	× 140 / 908	−19.8
11	40,914	2536.8	− 2628	−91.2	× 132 / 908	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,919	2413.3	− 2436	−22.7	× 126 / 868	−3.3
4	40,922	2448.0	− 2485	−37	× 122 / 868	−5.2
5	40,923	2480.2	− 2528	−47.8	× 128 / 868	−7
6	40,926	2474.8	− 2552	−77.2	× 133 / 868	−11.8
7	40,927	2491.2	− 2567	−75.8	× 141 / 868	−12.3
8	40,930	2490.9	− 2586	−95.1	× 119 / 868	−13
11	40,931	2537.9	− 2628	−90.1	× 99 / 868	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,073	2416.0	− 2436	−20	× 158 / 943	−3.4
4	41,074	2453.3	− 2485	−31.7	× 126 / 943	−4.2
5	41,075	2476.3	− 2528	−51.7	× 118 / 943	−6.5
6	41,076	2474.0	− 2552	−78	× 121 / 943	−10
7	41,077	2494.8	− 2567	−72.2	× 135 / 943	−10.3
8	41,078	2515.0	− 2586	−71	× 150 / 943	−11.3
11	41,079	2539.1	− 2628	−88.9	× 135 / 943	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	40,016	2512.0	− 2628	−116	× 98 / 98	−116
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−116

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,838	2396.6	− 2436	−39.4	× 110 / 858	−5.1
4	40,839	2442.5	− 2485	−42.5	× 115 / 858	−5.7
5	40,840	2415.7	− 2528	−112.3	× 105 / 858	−13.7
6	40,841	2440.0	− 2552	−112	× 148 / 858	−19.3
7	40,842	2466.6	− 2567	−100.4	× 119 / 858	−13.9
8	40,843	2466.0	− 2586	−120	× 114 / 858	−15.9
11	40,844	2529.1	− 2628	−98.9	× 147 / 858	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,869	2395.2	− 2436	−40.8	× 111 / 857	−5.3
4	40,870	2423.7	− 2485	−61.3	× 114 / 857	−8.2
5	40,871	2437.7	− 2528	−90.3	× 130 / 857	−13.7
6	40,872	2413.6	− 2552	−138.4	× 109 / 857	−17.6
7	40,873	2453.5	− 2567	−113.5	× 148 / 857	−19.6
8	40,874	2478.3	− 2586	−107.7	× 130 / 857	−16.3
11	40,875	2536.7	− 2628	−91.3	× 115 / 857	−12.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,692	2378.9	− 2436	−57.1	× 111 / 865	−7.3
4	40,693	2432.0	− 2485	−53	× 115 / 865	−7
5	40,694	2420.5	− 2528	−107.5	× 119 / 865	−14.8
6	40,695	2440.8	− 2552	−111.2	× 128 / 865	−16.5
7	40,696	2443.0	− 2567	−124	× 108 / 865	−15.5
8	40,697	2436.5	− 2586	−149.5	× 152 / 865	−26.3
11	40,698	2510.0	− 2628	−118	× 132 / 865	−18
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,477	2387.6	− 2436	−48.4	× 99 / 803	−6
4	40,478	2416.8	− 2485	−68.2	× 111 / 803	−9.4
5	40,479	2438.3	− 2528	−89.7	× 118 / 803	−13.2
6	40,480	2422.3	− 2552	−129.7	× 117 / 803	−18.9
7	40,481	2474.7	− 2567	−92.3	× 129 / 803	−14.8
8	40,482	2454.8	− 2586	−131.2	× 110 / 803	−18
11	40,483	2483.3	− 2628	−144.7	× 119 / 803	−21.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −69, −59, −65, −63, −58, −116, −91, −93, −105, −102 → −82.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2021: 58 · 2021→2022: 25 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 13.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.7 × 2.66 = 36.4. Upper limit −45.7, lower limit −118.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.