Soto Street Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,134	2383.5	− 2436	−52.5	× 32 / 121	−13.9
4	32,135	2415.7	− 2485	−69.3	× 33 / 121	−18.9
5	32,138	2409.1	− 2528	−118.9	× 16 / 121	−15.7
6	32,139	2465.1	− 2552	−86.9	× 40 / 121	−28.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,347	2375.8	− 2436	−60.2	× 28 / 110	−15.3
4	30,350	2431.5	− 2485	−53.5	× 33 / 110	−16.1
5	30,351	2429.2	− 2528	−98.8	× 32 / 110	−28.7
6	30,353	2500.7	− 2552	−51.3	× 17 / 110	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,913	2405.9	− 2436	−30.1	× 19 / 111	−5.2
4	30,914	2408.8	− 2485	−76.2	× 29 / 111	−19.9
5	30,916	2408.3	− 2528	−119.7	× 35 / 111	−37.7
6	30,918	2447.5	− 2552	−104.5	× 28 / 111	−26.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,959	2386.7	− 2436	−49.3	× 26 / 110	−11.7
4	30,962	2434.0	− 2485	−51	× 23 / 110	−10.7
5	30,963	2487.6	− 2528	−40.4	× 28 / 110	−10.3
6	30,966	2448.3	− 2552	−103.7	× 33 / 110	−31.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,136	2409.7	− 2436	−26.3	× 25 / 106	−6.2
4	31,137	2432.0	− 2485	−53	× 29 / 106	−14.5
5	31,138	2499.4	− 2528	−28.6	× 23 / 106	−6.2
6	31,139	2506.4	− 2552	−45.6	× 29 / 106	−12.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,153	2407.6	− 2436	−28.4	× 27 / 98	−7.8
4	31,154	2396.4	− 2485	−88.6	× 28 / 98	−25.3
5	31,155	2446.9	− 2528	−81.1	× 22 / 98	−18.2
6	31,156	2510.9	− 2552	−41.1	× 21 / 98	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,210	2385.0	− 2436	−51	× 28 / 112	−12.8
4	31,211	2450.1	− 2485	−34.9	× 26 / 112	−8.1
5	31,212	2423.0	− 2528	−105	× 32 / 112	−30
6	31,213	2433.7	− 2552	−118.3	× 26 / 112	−27.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,076	2390.7	− 2436	−45.3	× 19 / 107	−8
4	31,077	2432.5	− 2485	−52.5	× 30 / 107	−14.7
5	31,078	2481.1	− 2528	−46.9	× 28 / 107	−12.3
6	31,079	2501.1	− 2552	−50.9	× 30 / 107	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,935	2414.6	− 2436	−21.4	× 24 / 97	−5.3
4	30,936	2484.8	− 2485	−0.2	× 15 / 97	0
5	30,937	2463.8	− 2528	−64.2	× 30 / 97	−19.9
6	30,938	2525.7	− 2552	−26.3	× 28 / 97	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −77, −68, −89, −64, −39, −60, −78, −49, −33 → −61.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 21 · 2017→2018: 25 · 2018→2019: 25 · 2019→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 29 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 20.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 20.5 × 2.66 = 54.5. Upper limit −7.4, lower limit −116.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.