Kelly Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,014	2406.0	− 2436	−30	× 115 / 425	−8.1
4	39,016	2417.6	− 2485	−67.4	× 116 / 425	−18.4
5	39,018	2425.7	− 2528	−102.3	× 126 / 425	−30.3
6	39,020	2498.0	− 2552	−54	× 68 / 425	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,184	2438.7	− 2436	2.7	× 149 / 507	0.8
4	36,187	2420.0	− 2485	−65	× 109 / 507	−14
5	36,188	2450.9	− 2528	−77.1	× 120 / 507	−18.2
6	36,191	2468.5	− 2552	−83.5	× 77 / 507	−12.7
7	36,193	2515.8	− 2567	−51.2	× 52 / 507	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,934	2465.6	− 2436	29.6	× 122 / 531	6.8
4	36,937	2452.7	− 2485	−32.3	× 144 / 531	−8.8
5	36,939	2462.4	− 2528	−65.6	× 107 / 531	−13.2
6	36,940	2496.7	− 2552	−55.3	× 66 / 531	−6.9
7	36,942	2523.8	− 2567	−43.2	× 57 / 531	−4.6
8	36,944	2538.9	− 2586	−47.1	× 35 / 531	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,900	2447.1	− 2436	11.1	× 120 / 539	2.5
4	36,902	2455.9	− 2485	−29.1	× 110 / 539	−5.9
5	36,904	2467.7	− 2528	−60.3	× 147 / 539	−16.4
6	36,906	2506.0	− 2552	−46	× 67 / 539	−5.7
7	36,908	2547.3	− 2567	−19.7	× 50 / 539	−1.8
8	36,910	2566.3	− 2586	−19.7	× 45 / 539	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,096	2465.1	− 2436	29.1	× 110 / 567	5.6
4	37,097	2427.1	− 2485	−57.9	× 111 / 567	−11.3
5	37,098	2478.2	− 2528	−49.8	× 97 / 567	−8.5
6	37,099	2494.9	− 2552	−57.1	× 132 / 567	−13.3
7	37,100	2527.2	− 2567	−39.8	× 66 / 567	−4.6
8	37,101	2521.4	− 2586	−64.6	× 51 / 567	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,015	2409.1	− 2436	−26.9	× 68 / 455	−4
4	37,016	2457.0	− 2485	−28	× 87 / 455	−5.4
5	37,017	2476.2	− 2528	−51.8	× 86 / 455	−9.8
6	37,018	2504.9	− 2552	−47.1	× 84 / 455	−8.7
7	37,019	2504.2	− 2567	−62.8	× 66 / 455	−9.1
8	37,020	2563.4	− 2586	−22.6	× 64 / 455	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,048	2415.5	− 2436	−20.5	× 87 / 448	−4
4	37,049	2458.5	− 2485	−26.5	× 71 / 448	−4.2
5	37,050	2488.1	− 2528	−39.9	× 93 / 448	−8.3
6	37,051	2485.1	− 2552	−66.9	× 67 / 448	−10
7	37,052	2533.8	− 2567	−33.2	× 69 / 448	−5.1
8	37,053	2526.8	− 2586	−59.2	× 61 / 448	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,898	2425.0	− 2436	−11	× 78 / 432	−2
4	36,899	2452.4	− 2485	−32.6	× 85 / 432	−6.4
5	36,900	2523.3	− 2528	−4.7	× 71 / 432	−0.8
6	36,901	2511.8	− 2552	−40.2	× 66 / 432	−6.1
7	36,902	2561.6	− 2567	−5.4	× 65 / 432	−0.8
8	36,903	2607.8	− 2586	21.8	× 67 / 432	3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,733	2435.3	− 2436	−0.7	× 77 / 424	−0.1
4	36,734	2456.4	− 2485	−28.6	× 76 / 424	−5.1
5	36,735	2520.2	− 2528	−7.8	× 84 / 424	−1.5
6	36,736	2512.6	− 2552	−39.4	× 65 / 424	−6
7	36,737	2560.5	− 2567	−6.5	× 63 / 424	−1
8	36,738	2562.9	− 2586	−23.1	× 59 / 424	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −65, −49, −30, −29, −38, −40, −40, −13, −17 → −35.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 19 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 27 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 9.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.8 × 2.66 = 26.1. Upper limit −9.6, lower limit −61.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.