Jefferson Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,001	2433.1	− 2436	−2.9	× 91 / 424	−0.6
4	39,003	2467.9	− 2485	−17.1	× 104 / 424	−4.2
5	39,005	2478.6	− 2528	−49.4	× 103 / 424	−12
6	39,007	2528.2	− 2552	−23.8	× 70 / 424	−3.9
7	39,009	2580.8	− 2567	13.8	× 56 / 424	1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,171	2461.2	− 2436	25.2	× 103 / 504	5.2
4	36,172	2502.3	− 2485	17.3	× 88 / 504	3
5	36,175	2477.5	− 2528	−50.5	× 110 / 504	−11
6	36,176	2534.2	− 2552	−17.8	× 78 / 504	−2.8
7	36,178	2577.7	− 2567	10.7	× 66 / 504	1.4
8	36,181	2611.4	− 2586	25.4	× 59 / 504	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,920	2459.7	− 2436	23.7	× 120 / 524	5.4
4	36,923	2493.9	− 2485	8.9	× 102 / 524	1.7
5	36,925	2476.2	− 2528	−51.8	× 102 / 524	−10.1
6	36,927	2514.6	− 2552	−37.4	× 80 / 524	−5.7
7	36,929	2532.0	− 2567	−35	× 64 / 524	−4.3
8	36,931	2598.8	− 2586	12.8	× 56 / 524	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,887	2491.7	− 2436	55.7	× 102 / 549	10.3
4	36,889	2494.1	− 2485	9.1	× 129 / 549	2.1
5	36,891	2505.2	− 2528	−22.8	× 101 / 549	−4.2
6	36,893	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 72 / 549	−2.3
7	36,895	2539.9	− 2567	−27.1	× 82 / 549	−4
8	36,897	2565.5	− 2586	−20.5	× 63 / 549	−2.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,082	2504.7	− 2436	68.7	× 98 / 530	12.7
4	37,083	2492.5	− 2485	7.5	× 101 / 530	1.4
5	37,084	2514.6	− 2528	−13.4	× 122 / 530	−3.1
6	37,085	2547.2	− 2552	−4.8	× 69 / 530	−0.6
7	37,086	2564.2	− 2567	−2.8	× 64 / 530	−0.3
8	37,087	2598.6	− 2586	12.6	× 76 / 530	1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,001	2441.3	− 2436	5.3	× 107 / 488	1.2
4	37,002	2468.6	− 2485	−16.4	× 74 / 488	−2.5
5	37,003	2499.6	− 2528	−28.4	× 92 / 488	−5.4
6	37,004	2472.5	− 2552	−79.5	× 75 / 488	−12.2
7	37,005	2517.4	− 2567	−49.6	× 74 / 488	−7.5
8	37,006	2551.7	− 2586	−34.3	× 66 / 488	−4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,034	2449.0	− 2436	13	× 83 / 471	2.3
4	37,035	2450.3	− 2485	−34.7	× 105 / 471	−7.7
5	37,036	2473.9	− 2528	−54.1	× 81 / 471	−9.3
6	37,037	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 69 / 471	−2.6
7	37,038	2498.2	− 2567	−68.8	× 69 / 471	−10.1
8	37,039	2520.2	− 2586	−65.8	× 64 / 471	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,884	2475.9	− 2436	39.9	× 86 / 470	7.3
4	36,885	2460.9	− 2485	−24.1	× 83 / 470	−4.3
5	36,886	2472.2	− 2528	−55.8	× 99 / 470	−11.8
6	36,887	2490.6	− 2552	−61.4	× 73 / 470	−9.5
7	36,888	2507.7	− 2567	−59.3	× 71 / 470	−9
8	36,889	2536.6	− 2586	−49.4	× 58 / 470	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,719	2491.8	− 2436	55.8	× 76 / 444	9.6
4	36,720	2444.8	− 2485	−40.2	× 81 / 444	−7.3
5	36,721	2456.0	− 2528	−72	× 82 / 444	−13.3
6	36,722	2511.1	− 2552	−40.9	× 64 / 444	−5.9
7	36,723	2554.8	− 2567	−12.2	× 74 / 444	−2
8	36,724	2613.3	− 2586	27.3	× 67 / 444	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −19, −1, −12, 0, 12, −31, −36, −33, −15 → −15
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 18 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 43 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 18 → average 15.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.3 × 2.66 = 40.7. Upper limit 25.7, lower limit −55.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.