Roy W. Loudon Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,478	2377.2	− 2436	−58.8	× 115 / 439	−15.4
4	16,479	2402.0	− 2485	−83	× 100 / 439	−18.9
5	16,482	2410.0	− 2528	−118	× 111 / 439	−29.8
6	16,483	2447.3	− 2552	−104.7	× 113 / 439	−27
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,499	2397.9	− 2436	−38.1	× 83 / 423	−7.5
4	15,500	2417.0	− 2485	−68	× 124 / 423	−19.9
5	15,503	2416.4	− 2528	−111.6	× 92 / 423	−24.3
6	15,504	2452.9	− 2552	−99.1	× 124 / 423	−29.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,820	2405.6	− 2436	−30.4	× 119 / 431	−8.4
4	15,821	2446.7	− 2485	−38.3	× 84 / 431	−7.5
5	15,823	2420.7	− 2528	−107.3	× 109 / 431	−27.1
6	15,826	2462.7	− 2552	−89.3	× 119 / 431	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,837	2422.4	− 2436	−13.6	× 112 / 450	−3.4
4	15,838	2461.8	− 2485	−23.2	× 124 / 450	−6.4
5	15,841	2452.2	− 2528	−75.8	× 92 / 450	−15.5
6	15,842	2489.8	− 2552	−62.2	× 122 / 450	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,967	2451.9	− 2436	15.9	× 112 / 399	4.5
4	15,968	2476.8	− 2485	−8.2	× 90 / 399	−1.8
5	15,969	2449.9	− 2528	−78.1	× 114 / 399	−22.3
6	15,970	2492.9	− 2552	−59.1	× 83 / 399	−12.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,993	2396.9	− 2436	−39.1	× 96 / 374	−10
4	15,994	2435.1	− 2485	−49.9	× 71 / 374	−9.5
5	15,995	2486.9	− 2528	−41.1	× 90 / 374	−9.9
6	15,996	2467.7	− 2552	−84.3	× 117 / 374	−26.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,941	2389.7	− 2436	−46.3	× 106 / 371	−13.2
4	15,942	2429.0	− 2485	−56	× 105 / 371	−15.8
5	15,943	2461.2	− 2528	−66.8	× 71 / 371	−12.8
6	15,944	2476.2	− 2552	−75.8	× 89 / 371	−18.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,890	2387.0	− 2436	−49	× 105 / 383	−13.4
4	15,891	2421.4	− 2485	−63.6	× 97 / 383	−16.1
5	15,892	2447.5	− 2528	−80.5	× 107 / 383	−22.5
6	15,893	2470.7	− 2552	−81.3	× 74 / 383	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,881	2398.8	− 2436	−37.2	× 86 / 426	−7.5
4	15,882	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 115 / 426	−18.7
5	15,883	2442.9	− 2528	−85.1	× 107 / 426	−21.4
6	15,884	2480.3	− 2552	−71.7	× 118 / 426	−19.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −91, −81, −68, −42, −32, −56, −60, −68, −67 → −62.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 26 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 12
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12 × 2.66 = 31.9. Upper limit −30.9, lower limit −94.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.