San Pasqual Middle: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	15,307	2434.4	− 2552	−117.6	× 56 / 147	−44.8
7	15,308	2453.3	− 2567	−113.7	× 53 / 147	−41
8	15,311	2466.8	− 2586	−119.2	× 38 / 147	−30.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,327	2405.9	− 2552	−146.1	× 64 / 176	−53.1
7	14,328	2399.3	− 2567	−167.7	× 55 / 176	−52.4
8	14,330	2457.4	− 2586	−128.6	× 57 / 176	−41.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−147

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,657	2427.4	− 2552	−124.6	× 55 / 176	−38.9
7	14,659	2425.9	− 2567	−141.1	× 61 / 176	−48.9
8	14,662	2461.3	− 2586	−124.7	× 60 / 176	−42.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−130

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,672	2436.0	− 2552	−116	× 51 / 157	−37.7
7	14,673	2464.7	− 2567	−102.3	× 50 / 157	−32.6
8	14,676	2465.5	− 2586	−120.5	× 56 / 157	−43
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−113

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,762	2430.9	− 2552	−121.1	× 53 / 150	−42.8
7	14,763	2458.3	− 2567	−108.7	× 47 / 150	−34.1
8	14,764	2494.6	− 2586	−91.4	× 50 / 150	−30.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,444	2413.0	− 2552	−139	× 37 / 134	−38.4
7	14,445	2422.5	− 2567	−144.5	× 55 / 134	−59.3
8	14,446	2436.0	− 2586	−150	× 42 / 134	−47
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−145

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,780	2392.9	− 2552	−159.1	× 51 / 160	−50.7
7	14,781	2437.7	− 2567	−129.3	× 39 / 160	−31.5
8	14,782	2435.1	− 2586	−150.9	× 70 / 160	−66
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−148

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,738	2381.6	− 2552	−170.4	× 44 / 132	−56.8
7	14,739	2401.8	− 2567	−165.2	× 48 / 132	−60.1
8	14,740	2412.7	− 2586	−173.3	× 40 / 132	−52.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−169

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,691	2381.2	− 2552	−170.8	× 35 / 131	−45.6
7	14,692	2411.4	− 2567	−155.6	× 45 / 131	−53.5
8	14,693	2396.2	− 2586	−189.8	× 51 / 131	−73.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−173

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	14,655	2378.6	− 2552	−173.4	× 39 / 114	−59.3
7	14,656	2400.6	− 2567	−166.4	× 32 / 114	−46.7
8	14,657	2395.4	− 2586	−190.6	× 43 / 114	−71.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−178

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −117, −147, −130, −113, −107, −145, −148, −169, −173, −178 → −142.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 30 · 2016→2017: 17 · 2017→2018: 17 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 38 · 2021→2022: 3 · 2022→2023: 21 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 15.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.7 × 2.66 = 41.8. Upper limit −100.9, lower limit −184.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.