Phoenix Elementary Academy Community Day: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,245	2293.0	− 2436	−143	× 14 / 36	−55.6
4	11,246	2308.7	− 2485	−176.3	× 10 / 36	−49
6	11,250	2302.9	− 2552	−249.1	× 12 / 36	−83
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−188

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	10,261	2332.1	− 2485	−152.9	× 16 / 34	−72
6	10,265	2299.8	− 2552	−252.2	× 18 / 34	−133.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−205

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,590	2287.4	− 2436	−148.6	× 13 / 41	−47.1
5	10,594	2325.8	− 2528	−202.2	× 13 / 41	−64.1
6	10,597	2288.4	− 2552	−263.6	× 15 / 41	−96.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−208

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	10,606	2318.3	− 2485	−166.7	× 15 / 46	−54.4
5	10,608	2344.6	− 2528	−183.4	× 12 / 46	−47.8
6	10,610	2326.9	− 2552	−225.1	× 19 / 46	−93
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−195

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,681	2323.8	− 2436	−112.2	× 13 / 28	−52.1
6	10,684	2395.3	− 2552	−156.7	× 15 / 28	−83.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−136

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	10,664	2362.8	− 2528	−165.2	× 11 / 24	−75.7
6	10,665	2369.1	− 2552	−182.9	× 13 / 24	−99.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−175

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	10,598	2370.3	− 2485	−114.7	× 12 / 34	−40.5
5	10,599	2373.6	− 2528	−154.4	× 11 / 34	−50
6	10,600	2355.7	− 2552	−196.3	× 11 / 34	−63.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−154

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −188, −205, −208, −195, −136, −175, −154 → −180.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 17 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 13 · 2018→2019: 59 · 2019→2023: 39 · 2023→2025: 21 → average 25.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 25.3 × 2.66 = 67.3. Upper limit −112.8, lower limit −247.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.