Phoenix Elementary Academy Community Day: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,244	2293.0	− 2432	−139	× 12 / 39	−42.8
4	11,247	2292.3	− 2473	−180.7	× 11 / 39	−51
6	11,251	2354.3	− 2531	−176.7	× 16 / 39	−72.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−166

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	10,260	2308.8	− 2473	−164.2	× 17 / 34	−82.1
6	10,264	2373.4	− 2531	−157.6	× 17 / 34	−78.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−161

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,591	2287.7	− 2432	−144.3	× 13 / 42	−44.7
5	10,595	2320.3	− 2502	−181.7	× 13 / 42	−56.2
6	10,596	2344.9	− 2531	−186.1	× 16 / 42	−70.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−172

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	10,607	2307.3	− 2473	−165.7	× 15 / 45	−55.2
5	10,609	2310.1	− 2502	−191.9	× 11 / 45	−46.9
6	10,611	2332.2	− 2531	−198.8	× 19 / 45	−83.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−186

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,676	2307.1	− 2432	−124.9	× 14 / 29	−60.3
6	10,679	2414.5	− 2531	−116.5	× 15 / 29	−60.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−121

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	10,659	2357.3	− 2502	−144.7	× 11 / 24	−66.3
6	10,660	2394.1	− 2531	−136.9	× 13 / 24	−74.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−140

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	10,593	2355.0	− 2473	−118	× 14 / 26	−63.5
5	10,594	2334.9	− 2502	−167.1	× 12 / 26	−77.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−141

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −166, −161, −172, −186, −121, −140, −141 → −155.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 65 · 2019→2023: 19 · 2023→2025: 1 → average 19.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 19.2 × 2.66 = 51.1. Upper limit −104.2, lower limit −206.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.