Tyrrell Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,612	2367.3	− 2436	−68.7	× 104 / 429	−16.7
4	1,613	2429.9	− 2485	−55.1	× 119 / 429	−15.3
5	1,616	2425.4	− 2528	−102.6	× 101 / 429	−24.2
6	1,617	2439.9	− 2552	−112.1	× 105 / 429	−27.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,416	2389.3	− 2436	−46.7	× 114 / 431	−12.4
4	1,418	2420.6	− 2485	−64.4	× 98 / 431	−14.6
5	1,420	2467.8	− 2528	−60.2	× 115 / 431	−16.1
6	1,422	2440.7	− 2552	−111.3	× 104 / 431	−26.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,455	2407.0	− 2436	−29	× 92 / 407	−6.6
4	1,456	2439.1	− 2485	−45.9	× 109 / 407	−12.3
5	1,459	2468.4	− 2528	−59.6	× 95 / 407	−13.9
6	1,461	2458.0	− 2552	−94	× 111 / 407	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,484	2381.1	− 2436	−54.9	× 112 / 413	−14.9
4	1,487	2445.8	− 2485	−39.2	× 95 / 413	−9
5	1,488	2458.9	− 2528	−69.1	× 108 / 413	−18.1
6	1,491	2476.6	− 2552	−75.4	× 98 / 413	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,511	2384.7	− 2436	−51.3	× 88 / 385	−11.7
4	1,512	2442.0	− 2485	−43	× 109 / 385	−12.2
5	1,513	2482.6	− 2528	−45.4	× 90 / 385	−10.6
6	1,514	2454.1	− 2552	−97.9	× 98 / 385	−24.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,495	2374.9	− 2436	−61.1	× 68 / 309	−13.4
4	1,496	2390.1	− 2485	−94.9	× 88 / 309	−27
5	1,497	2429.9	− 2528	−98.1	× 73 / 309	−23.2
6	1,498	2421.3	− 2552	−130.7	× 80 / 309	−33.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,481	2380.9	− 2436	−55.1	× 85 / 358	−13.1
4	1,482	2397.6	− 2485	−87.4	× 82 / 358	−20
5	1,483	2430.6	− 2528	−97.4	× 104 / 358	−28.3
6	1,484	2445.6	− 2552	−106.4	× 87 / 358	−25.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,449	2349.0	− 2436	−87	× 94 / 361	−22.7
4	1,450	2405.6	− 2485	−79.4	× 78 / 361	−17.2
5	1,451	2427.3	− 2528	−100.7	× 85 / 361	−23.7
6	1,452	2422.8	− 2552	−129.2	× 104 / 361	−37.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	1,441	2371.3	− 2436	−64.7	× 89 / 343	−16.8
4	1,442	2398.3	− 2485	−86.7	× 93 / 343	−23.5
5	1,443	2468.3	− 2528	−59.7	× 81 / 343	−14.1
6	1,444	2427.5	− 2552	−124.5	× 80 / 343	−29
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −84, −70, −58, −60, −59, −97, −87, −101, −83 → −77.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 38 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 18 → average 13.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.6 × 2.66 = 36.2. Upper limit −41.5, lower limit −113.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.