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The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,370	2334.7	− 2432	−97.3	× 109 / 398	−26.6
4	45,371	2399.1	− 2473	−73.9	× 112 / 398	−20.8
5	45,374	2436.2	− 2502	−65.8	× 92 / 398	−15.2
6	45,375	2467.1	− 2531	−63.9	× 85 / 398	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,072	2392.0	− 2432	−40	× 110 / 409	−10.8
4	42,074	2406.0	− 2473	−67	× 104 / 409	−17
5	42,075	2464.8	− 2502	−37.2	× 106 / 409	−9.6
6	42,078	2484.9	− 2531	−46.1	× 89 / 409	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,113	2396.4	− 2432	−35.6	× 111 / 417	−9.5
4	43,114	2446.8	− 2473	−26.2	× 107 / 417	−6.7
5	43,116	2451.2	− 2502	−50.8	× 104 / 417	−12.7
6	43,118	2513.4	− 2531	−17.6	× 95 / 417	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,119	2417.3	− 2432	−14.7	× 90 / 397	−3.3
4	43,122	2474.3	− 2473	1.3	× 100 / 397	0.3
5	43,123	2484.4	− 2502	−17.6	× 108 / 397	−4.8
6	43,125	2491.9	− 2531	−39.1	× 99 / 397	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,238	2437.5	− 2432	5.5	× 88 / 383	1.3
4	43,239	2485.5	− 2473	12.5	× 93 / 383	3
5	43,240	2487.6	− 2502	−14.4	× 99 / 383	−3.7
6	43,241	2518.0	− 2531	−13	× 103 / 383	−3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,978	2369.7	− 2432	−62.3	× 90 / 332	−16.9
4	42,979	2434.3	− 2473	−38.7	× 71 / 332	−8.3
5	42,980	2456.8	− 2502	−45.2	× 87 / 332	−11.8
6	42,981	2523.7	− 2531	−7.3	× 84 / 332	−1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,996	2399.9	− 2432	−32.1	× 78 / 314	−8
4	42,997	2434.2	− 2473	−38.8	× 83 / 314	−10.3
5	42,998	2479.3	− 2502	−22.7	× 68 / 314	−4.9
6	42,999	2498.7	− 2531	−32.3	× 85 / 314	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,824	2399.1	− 2432	−32.9	× 75 / 315	−7.8
4	42,825	2448.3	− 2473	−24.7	× 78 / 315	−6.1
5	42,826	2473.4	− 2502	−28.6	× 87 / 315	−7.9
6	42,827	2508.4	− 2531	−22.6	× 75 / 315	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,579	2376.3	− 2432	−55.7	× 74 / 312	−13.2
4	42,580	2435.7	− 2473	−37.3	× 78 / 312	−9.3
5	42,581	2481.2	− 2502	−20.8	× 74 / 312	−4.9
6	42,582	2509.8	− 2531	−21.2	× 86 / 312	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −76, −47, −33, −18, −3, −39, −32, −27, −33 → −34.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 29 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 36 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 15.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.9 × 2.66 = 42.3. Upper limit 8.1, lower limit −76.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.