Vallecito Union: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,499	2423.0	− 2432	−9	× 62 / 374	−1.5
4	5,502	2469.3	− 2473	−3.7	× 55 / 374	−0.5
5	5,504	2527.2	− 2502	25.2	× 58 / 374	3.9
6	5,506	2545.7	− 2531	14.7	× 57 / 374	2.2
7	5,508	2576.7	− 2552	24.7	× 69 / 374	4.6
8	5,510	2588.0	− 2567	21	× 73 / 374	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,963	2420.3	− 2432	−11.7	× 54 / 370	−1.7
4	4,964	2473.2	− 2473	0.2	× 65 / 370	0
5	4,967	2536.5	− 2502	34.5	× 56 / 370	5.2
6	4,968	2555.7	− 2531	24.7	× 58 / 370	3.9
7	4,971	2543.5	− 2552	−8.5	× 68 / 370	−1.6
8	4,973	2587.8	− 2567	20.8	× 69 / 370	3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,057	2446.6	− 2432	14.6	× 62 / 385	2.4
4	5,058	2472.4	− 2473	−0.6	× 54 / 385	−0.1
5	5,061	2506.2	− 2502	4.2	× 65 / 385	0.7
6	5,062	2545.8	− 2531	14.8	× 69 / 385	2.7
7	5,065	2578.5	− 2552	26.5	× 65 / 385	4.5
8	5,067	2561.3	− 2567	−5.7	× 70 / 385	−1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,045	2448.9	− 2432	16.9	× 61 / 375	2.7
4	5,046	2472.2	− 2473	−0.8	× 62 / 375	−0.1
5	5,049	2499.4	− 2502	−2.6	× 52 / 375	−0.4
6	5,050	2524.5	− 2531	−6.5	× 68 / 375	−1.2
7	5,053	2546.4	− 2552	−5.6	× 66 / 375	−1
8	5,054	2578.5	− 2567	11.5	× 66 / 375	2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,076	2440.5	− 2432	8.5	× 50 / 374	1.1
4	5,077	2478.3	− 2473	5.3	× 66 / 374	0.9
5	5,078	2510.6	− 2502	8.6	× 63 / 374	1.4
6	5,079	2547.6	− 2531	16.6	× 58 / 374	2.6
7	5,080	2562.6	− 2552	10.6	× 70 / 374	2
8	5,081	2565.6	− 2567	−1.4	× 67 / 374	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,836	2461.7	− 2432	29.7	× 55 / 337	4.8
4	4,837	2464.6	− 2473	−8.4	× 57 / 337	−1.4
5	4,838	2516.8	− 2502	14.8	× 51 / 337	2.2
6	4,839	2548.8	− 2531	17.8	× 59 / 337	3.1
7	4,840	2565.7	− 2552	13.7	× 62 / 337	2.5
8	4,841	2523.3	− 2567	−43.7	× 53 / 337	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,917	2453.1	− 2432	21.1	× 59 / 352	3.5
4	4,918	2481.6	− 2473	8.6	× 59 / 352	1.4
5	4,919	2497.8	− 2502	−4.2	× 61 / 352	−0.7
6	4,920	2555.2	− 2531	24.2	× 54 / 352	3.7
7	4,921	2559.0	− 2552	7	× 63 / 352	1.3
8	4,922	2557.1	− 2567	−9.9	× 56 / 352	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,911	2449.4	− 2432	17.4	× 68 / 385	3.1
4	4,912	2507.7	− 2473	34.7	× 61 / 385	5.5
5	4,913	2502.4	− 2502	0.4	× 65 / 385	0.1
6	4,914	2560.3	− 2531	29.3	× 71 / 385	5.4
7	4,915	2566.6	− 2552	14.6	× 59 / 385	2.2
8	4,916	2562.2	− 2567	−4.8	× 61 / 385	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,866	2415.4	− 2432	−16.6	× 59 / 362	−2.7
4	4,867	2489.5	− 2473	16.5	× 69 / 362	3.1
5	4,868	2515.9	− 2502	13.9	× 61 / 362	2.3
6	4,869	2563.1	− 2531	32.1	× 61 / 362	5.4
7	4,870	2576.7	− 2552	24.7	× 63 / 362	4.3
8	4,871	2562.9	− 2567	−4.1	× 49 / 362	−0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,828	2438.7	− 2432	6.7	× 52 / 368	0.9
4	4,829	2489.0	− 2473	16	× 64 / 368	2.8
5	4,830	2534.0	− 2502	32	× 67 / 368	5.8
6	4,831	2561.6	− 2531	30.6	× 64 / 368	5.3
7	4,832	2569.2	− 2552	17.2	× 61 / 368	2.9
8	4,833	2579.8	− 2567	12.8	× 60 / 368	2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						20

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 13, 10, 9, 2, 8, 4, 8, 16, 12, 20 → 10.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2021: 4 · 2021→2022: 4 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5 × 2.66 = 13.3. Upper limit 23.5, lower limit −3.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.