John Blacow Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	952	2403.1	− 2432	−28.9	× 60 / 239	−7.3
4	955	2445.6	− 2473	−27.4	× 72 / 239	−8.3
5	956	2460.2	− 2502	−41.8	× 51 / 239	−8.9
6	959	2539.7	− 2531	8.7	× 56 / 239	2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	786	2405.0	− 2432	−27	× 41 / 214	−5.2
4	789	2467.9	− 2473	−5.1	× 56 / 214	−1.3
5	791	2489.8	− 2502	−12.2	× 67 / 214	−3.8
6	792	2527.4	− 2531	−3.6	× 50 / 214	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	841	2428.9	− 2432	−3.1	× 47 / 205	−0.7
4	842	2429.3	− 2473	−43.7	× 46 / 205	−9.8
5	845	2504.5	− 2502	2.5	× 53 / 205	0.6
6	847	2537.9	− 2531	6.9	× 59 / 205	2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	864	2426.7	− 2432	−5.3	× 47 / 195	−1.3
4	866	2471.9	− 2473	−1.1	× 47 / 195	−0.3
5	868	2495.4	− 2502	−6.6	× 48 / 195	−1.6
6	870	2523.9	− 2531	−7.1	× 53 / 195	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	888	2414.5	− 2432	−17.5	× 54 / 193	−4.9
4	889	2458.9	− 2473	−14.1	× 48 / 193	−3.5
5	890	2513.9	− 2502	11.9	× 45 / 193	2.8
6	891	2538.6	− 2531	7.6	× 46 / 193	1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	888	2362.8	− 2432	−69.2	× 50 / 174	−19.9
4	889	2456.7	− 2473	−16.3	× 54 / 174	−5.1
5	890	2498.2	− 2502	−3.8	× 53 / 174	−1.2
6	891	2528.4	− 2531	−2.6	× 17 / 174	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	904	2410.3	− 2432	−21.7	× 80 / 304	−5.7
4	905	2447.1	− 2473	−25.9	× 89 / 304	−7.6
5	906	2494.2	− 2502	−7.8	× 90 / 304	−2.3
6	907	2580.2	− 2531	49.2	× 45 / 304	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	900	2387.8	− 2432	−44.2	× 87 / 258	−14.9
4	901	2465.9	− 2473	−7.1	× 78 / 258	−2.1
5	902	2468.2	− 2502	−33.8	× 93 / 258	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	892	2402.2	− 2432	−29.8	× 86 / 243	−10.5
4	893	2444.4	− 2473	−28.6	× 86 / 243	−10.1
5	894	2502.8	− 2502	0.8	× 71 / 243	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −22, −11, −8, −5, −4, −26, −8, −29, −20 → −14.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 21 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 11
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11 × 2.66 = 29.3. Upper limit 14.5, lower limit −44.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.