Sebastopol Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,444	2427.2	− 2436	−8.8	× 61 / 330	−1.6
4	95,446	2461.6	− 2485	−23.4	× 41 / 330	−2.9
5	95,448	2458.2	− 2528	−69.8	× 58 / 330	−12.3
6	95,450	2449.8	− 2552	−102.2	× 66 / 330	−20.4
7	95,452	2481.0	− 2567	−86	× 71 / 330	−18.5
8	95,454	2522.6	− 2586	−63.4	× 33 / 330	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,595	2449.5	− 2436	13.5	× 45 / 375	1.6
4	88,597	2437.0	− 2485	−48	× 58 / 375	−7.4
5	88,600	2473.9	− 2528	−54.1	× 47 / 375	−6.8
6	88,601	2475.2	− 2552	−76.8	× 59 / 375	−12.1
7	88,603	2496.3	− 2567	−70.7	× 79 / 375	−14.9
8	88,606	2512.8	− 2586	−73.2	× 87 / 375	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,135	2454.0	− 2436	18	× 54 / 344	2.8
4	91,137	2461.1	− 2485	−23.9	× 46 / 344	−3.2
5	91,138	2462.9	− 2528	−65.1	× 55 / 344	−10.4
6	91,140	2470.5	− 2552	−81.5	× 52 / 344	−12.3
7	91,142	2488.4	− 2567	−78.6	× 62 / 344	−14.2
8	91,145	2509.6	− 2586	−76.4	× 75 / 344	−16.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,325	2426.3	− 2436	−9.7	× 41 / 306	−1.3
4	91,328	2476.3	− 2485	−8.7	× 46 / 306	−1.3
5	91,329	2475.6	− 2528	−52.4	× 49 / 306	−8.4
6	91,332	2434.5	− 2552	−117.5	× 57 / 306	−21.9
7	91,333	2474.9	− 2567	−92.1	× 50 / 306	−15
8	91,336	2510.7	− 2586	−75.3	× 63 / 306	−15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,972	2423.9	− 2436	−12.1	× 57 / 291	−2.4
4	91,973	2508.9	− 2485	23.9	× 42 / 291	3.4
5	91,974	2506.0	− 2528	−22	× 45 / 291	−3.4
6	91,975	2497.5	− 2552	−54.5	× 44 / 291	−8.2
7	91,976	2542.2	− 2567	−24.8	× 51 / 291	−4.3
8	91,977	2561.8	− 2586	−24.2	× 52 / 291	−4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,218	2394.9	− 2436	−41.1	× 54 / 294	−7.5
4	92,219	2484.7	− 2485	−0.3	× 39 / 294	0
5	92,220	2445.9	− 2528	−82.1	× 45 / 294	−12.6
6	92,221	2465.8	− 2552	−86.2	× 50 / 294	−14.7
7	92,222	2519.9	− 2567	−47.1	× 42 / 294	−6.7
8	92,223	2519.2	− 2586	−66.8	× 64 / 294	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,134	2439.5	− 2436	3.5	× 42 / 290	0.5
4	92,135	2481.0	− 2485	−4	× 47 / 290	−0.6
5	92,136	2468.3	− 2528	−59.7	× 49 / 290	−10.1
6	92,137	2496.5	− 2552	−55.5	× 52 / 290	−10
7	92,138	2491.1	− 2567	−75.9	× 53 / 290	−13.9
8	92,139	2528.4	− 2586	−57.6	× 47 / 290	−9.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,053	2427.9	− 2436	−8.1	× 35 / 286	−1
4	92,054	2485.8	− 2485	0.8	× 42 / 286	0.1
5	92,055	2481.9	− 2528	−46.1	× 52 / 286	−8.4
6	92,056	2504.9	− 2552	−47.1	× 47 / 286	−7.7
7	92,057	2534.4	− 2567	−32.6	× 54 / 286	−6.2
8	92,058	2522.3	− 2586	−63.7	× 56 / 286	−12.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,763	2428.1	− 2436	−7.9	× 67 / 313	−1.7
4	91,764	2508.4	− 2485	23.4	× 33 / 313	2.5
5	91,765	2470.4	− 2528	−57.6	× 53 / 313	−9.8
6	91,766	2513.6	− 2552	−38.4	× 56 / 313	−6.9
7	91,767	2523.4	− 2567	−43.6	× 50 / 313	−7
8	91,768	2547.6	− 2586	−38.4	× 54 / 313	−6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,392	2442.7	− 2436	6.7	× 46 / 328	0.9
4	91,393	2486.0	− 2485	1	× 66 / 328	0.2
5	91,394	2495.2	− 2528	−32.8	× 34 / 328	−3.4
6	91,395	2494.7	− 2552	−57.3	× 72 / 328	−12.6
7	91,396	2512.4	− 2567	−54.6	× 59 / 328	−9.8
8	91,397	2500.2	− 2586	−85.8	× 51 / 328	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −62, −57, −54, −63, −19, −56, −43, −36, −29, −38 → −45.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 44 · 2019→2022: 37 · 2022→2023: 13 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 7 · 2025→2026: 9 → average 14.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.9 × 2.66 = 39.6. Upper limit −6.1, lower limit −85.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Sebastopol Union Elementary