Santa Rosa Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,110	2394.5	− 2436	−41.5	× 705 / 2674	−10.9
4	95,113	2438.1	− 2485	−46.9	× 661 / 2674	−11.6
5	95,114	2462.3	− 2528	−65.7	× 633 / 2674	−15.6
6	95,117	2488.3	− 2552	−63.7	× 604 / 2674	−14.4
7	95,118	2556.3	− 2567	−10.7	× 43 / 2674	−0.2
8	95,121	2494.0	− 2586	−92	× 28 / 2674	−1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,333	2401.2	− 2436	−34.8	× 605 / 2621	−8
4	88,335	2433.5	− 2485	−51.5	× 691 / 2621	−13.6
5	88,337	2454.5	− 2528	−73.5	× 634 / 2621	−17.8
6	88,339	2498.0	− 2552	−54	× 619 / 2621	−12.8
7	88,342	2515.2	− 2567	−51.8	× 33 / 2621	−0.7
8	88,344	2576.3	− 2586	−9.7	× 39 / 2621	−0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,893	2404.8	− 2436	−31.2	× 713 / 2625	−8.5
4	90,894	2444.9	− 2485	−40.1	× 611 / 2625	−9.3
5	90,896	2446.9	− 2528	−81.1	× 661 / 2625	−20.4
6	90,899	2483.5	− 2552	−68.5	× 608 / 2625	−15.9
7	90,901	2515.1	− 2567	−51.9	× 16 / 2625	−0.3
8	90,902	2474.3	− 2586	−111.7	× 16 / 2625	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,736	2408.7	− 2436	−27.3	× 664 / 2607	−7
4	91,737	2454.9	− 2485	−30.1	× 676 / 2607	−7.8
5	91,738	2476.2	− 2528	−51.8	× 657 / 2607	−13.1
6	91,739	2498.9	− 2552	−53.1	× 551 / 2607	−11.2
7	91,740	2540.9	− 2567	−26.1	× 30 / 2607	−0.3
8	91,741	2499.2	− 2586	−86.8	× 29 / 2607	−1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,980	2395.9	− 2436	−40.1	× 572 / 2758	−8.3
4	91,981	2428.8	− 2485	−56.2	× 572 / 2758	−11.7
5	91,982	2446.6	− 2528	−81.4	× 549 / 2758	−16.2
6	91,983	2477.4	− 2552	−74.6	× 584 / 2758	−15.8
7	91,984	2432.7	− 2567	−134.3	× 240 / 2758	−11.7
8	91,985	2437.6	− 2586	−148.4	× 241 / 2758	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,886	2387.7	− 2436	−48.3	× 552 / 2712	−9.8
4	91,887	2442.0	− 2485	−43	× 572 / 2712	−9.1
5	91,888	2451.5	− 2528	−76.5	× 546 / 2712	−15.4
6	91,889	2482.2	− 2552	−69.8	× 573 / 2712	−14.7
7	91,890	2450.7	− 2567	−116.3	× 247 / 2712	−10.6
8	91,891	2428.4	− 2586	−157.6	× 222 / 2712	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,813	2390.7	− 2436	−45.3	× 581 / 2682	−9.8
4	91,814	2423.9	− 2485	−61.1	× 540 / 2682	−12.3
5	91,815	2454.4	− 2528	−73.6	× 577 / 2682	−15.8
6	91,816	2467.1	− 2552	−84.9	× 532 / 2682	−16.8
7	91,817	2450.9	− 2567	−116.1	× 219 / 2682	−9.5
8	91,818	2449.4	− 2586	−136.6	× 233 / 2682	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,521	2392.3	− 2436	−43.7	× 624 / 2690	−10.1
4	91,522	2423.9	− 2485	−61.1	× 567 / 2690	−12.9
5	91,523	2444.3	− 2528	−83.7	× 520 / 2690	−16.2
6	91,524	2481.3	− 2552	−70.7	× 585 / 2690	−15.4
7	91,525	2467.8	− 2567	−99.2	× 192 / 2690	−7.1
8	91,526	2452.0	− 2586	−134	× 202 / 2690	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,170	2383.4	− 2436	−52.6	× 540 / 2610	−10.9
4	91,171	2436.3	− 2485	−48.7	× 605 / 2610	−11.3
5	91,172	2445.5	− 2528	−82.5	× 530 / 2610	−16.8
6	91,173	2461.6	− 2552	−90.4	× 518 / 2610	−17.9
7	91,174	2472.0	− 2567	−95	× 227 / 2610	−8.3
8	91,175	2466.8	− 2586	−119.2	× 190 / 2610	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −54, −53, −55, −40, −77, −73, −76, −72, −74 → −63.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 37 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 2 → average 8.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.5 × 2.66 = 22.6. Upper limit −41.2, lower limit −86.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Santa Rosa Elementary