Harmony Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,303	2385.6	− 2436	−50.4	× 16 / 122	−6.6
4	94,304	2456.6	− 2485	−28.4	× 24 / 122	−5.6
5	94,307	2489.5	− 2528	−38.5	× 21 / 122	−6.6
6	94,308	2598.8	− 2552	46.8	× 17 / 122	6.5
7	94,311	2528.9	− 2567	−38.1	× 27 / 122	−8.4
8	94,312	2558.4	− 2586	−27.6	× 17 / 122	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,549	2465.6	− 2436	29.6	× 23 / 139	4.9
4	87,552	2469.4	− 2485	−15.6	× 20 / 139	−2.2
5	87,553	2484.7	− 2528	−43.3	× 26 / 139	−8.1
6	87,555	2540.6	− 2552	−11.4	× 24 / 139	−2
7	87,557	2626.4	− 2567	59.4	× 20 / 139	8.5
8	87,559	2548.1	− 2586	−37.9	× 26 / 139	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,050	2476.8	− 2436	40.8	× 26 / 154	6.9
4	90,052	2509.9	− 2485	24.9	× 25 / 154	4
5	90,054	2464.3	− 2528	−63.7	× 22 / 154	−9.1
6	90,057	2491.4	− 2552	−60.6	× 30 / 154	−11.8
7	90,059	2560.7	− 2567	−6.3	× 27 / 154	−1.1
8	90,061	2615.5	− 2586	29.5	× 24 / 154	4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,274	2463.1	− 2436	27.1	× 22 / 151	3.9
4	90,275	2489.6	− 2485	4.6	× 27 / 151	0.8
5	90,278	2536.6	− 2528	8.6	× 25 / 151	1.4
6	90,279	2513.1	− 2552	−38.9	× 23 / 151	−5.9
7	90,282	2524.1	− 2567	−42.9	× 29 / 151	−8.2
8	90,283	2523.7	− 2586	−62.3	× 25 / 151	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,892	2484.1	− 2436	48.1	× 32 / 151	10.2
4	90,893	2494.1	− 2485	9.1	× 25 / 151	1.5
5	90,894	2522.6	− 2528	−5.4	× 22 / 151	−0.8
6	90,895	2556.7	− 2552	4.7	× 23 / 151	0.7
7	90,896	2544.3	− 2567	−22.7	× 21 / 151	−3.2
8	90,897	2515.3	− 2586	−70.7	× 28 / 151	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	88,991	2502.4	− 2485	17.4	× 21 / 91	4
5	88,992	2522.2	− 2528	−5.8	× 20 / 91	−1.3
6	88,993	2476.2	− 2552	−75.8	× 17 / 91	−14.2
7	88,994	2561.9	− 2567	−5.1	× 19 / 91	−1.1
8	88,995	2526.5	− 2586	−59.5	× 14 / 91	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,126	2464.4	− 2436	28.4	× 27 / 111	6.9
4	91,127	2456.3	− 2485	−28.7	× 14 / 111	−3.6
5	91,128	2560.8	− 2528	32.8	× 22 / 111	6.5
6	91,129	2526.5	− 2552	−25.5	× 20 / 111	−4.6
7	91,130	2500.6	− 2567	−66.4	× 11 / 111	−6.6
8	91,131	2604.4	− 2586	18.4	× 17 / 111	2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,016	2409.0	− 2436	−27	× 21 / 106	−5.3
4	91,017	2461.3	− 2485	−23.7	× 28 / 106	−6.3
5	91,018	2504.4	− 2528	−23.6	× 17 / 106	−3.8
6	91,019	2558.1	− 2552	6.1	× 22 / 106	1.3
7	91,020	2576.2	− 2567	9.2	× 18 / 106	1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,969	2400.3	− 2436	−35.7	× 22 / 143	−5.5
4	90,970	2450.0	− 2485	−35	× 23 / 143	−5.6
5	90,971	2497.7	− 2528	−30.3	× 32 / 143	−6.8
6	90,972	2470.8	− 2552	−81.2	× 25 / 143	−14.2
7	90,973	2588.4	− 2567	21.4	× 21 / 143	3.1
8	90,974	2531.2	− 2586	−54.8	× 20 / 143	−7.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,663	2433.9	− 2436	−2.1	× 18 / 122	−0.3
4	90,664	2481.1	− 2485	−3.9	× 22 / 122	−0.7
5	90,665	2439.6	− 2528	−88.4	× 12 / 122	−8.7
6	90,666	2518.6	− 2552	−33.4	× 28 / 122	−7.7
7	90,667	2519.4	− 2567	−47.6	× 22 / 122	−8.6
8	90,668	2599.8	− 2586	13.8	× 20 / 122	2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,322	2502.8	− 2436	66.8	× 18 / 120	10
4	90,323	2465.6	− 2485	−19.4	× 22 / 120	−3.6
5	90,324	2478.2	− 2528	−49.8	× 25 / 120	−10.4
6	90,325	2497.6	− 2552	−54.4	× 11 / 120	−5
7	90,326	2543.8	− 2567	−23.2	× 25 / 120	−4.8
8	90,327	2528.7	− 2586	−57.3	× 19 / 120	−9.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −25, −6, −6, −18, −5, −22, 1, −13, −37, −24, −23 → −16.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 19 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2021: 17 · 2021→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 24 · 2024→2025: 13 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 13.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.6 × 2.66 = 36.2. Upper limit 20, lower limit −52.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Harmony Union Elementary