Alexander Valley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2477 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2520 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 19 points under the grade 5 bar. 2509 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2623 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,890	2459.4	− 2436	23.4	× 17 / 68	5.9
4	93,892	2474.9	− 2485	−10.1	× 17 / 68	−2.5
5	93,894	2537.9	− 2528	9.9	× 16 / 68	2.3
6	93,896	2597.8	− 2552	45.8	× 18 / 68	12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,192	2447.1	− 2436	11.1	× 19 / 62	3.4
4	87,193	2478.5	− 2485	−6.5	× 15 / 62	−1.6
5	87,195	2527.9	− 2528	−0.1	× 16 / 62	0
6	87,198	2608.9	− 2552	56.9	× 12 / 62	11
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,646	2457.7	− 2436	21.7	× 16 / 65	5.3
4	89,649	2477.4	− 2485	−7.6	× 18 / 65	−2.1
5	89,651	2484.9	− 2528	−43.1	× 17 / 65	−11.3
6	89,653	2607.7	− 2552	55.7	× 14 / 65	12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,858	2462.1	− 2436	26.1	× 17 / 59	7.5
4	89,859	2496.5	− 2485	11.5	× 11 / 59	2.1
5	89,862	2521.6	− 2528	−6.4	× 17 / 59	−1.8
6	89,863	2563.6	− 2552	11.6	× 14 / 59	2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,486	2456.9	− 2436	20.9	× 15 / 56	5.6
4	90,487	2526.4	− 2485	41.4	× 14 / 56	10.4
5	90,488	2562.4	− 2528	34.4	× 11 / 56	6.8
6	90,489	2606.9	− 2552	54.9	× 16 / 56	15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						38

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,738	2465.9	− 2436	29.9	× 14 / 56	7.5
4	90,739	2507.6	− 2485	22.6	× 14 / 56	5.7
5	90,740	2552.8	− 2528	24.8	× 12 / 56	5.3
6	90,741	2568.9	− 2552	16.9	× 16 / 56	4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						23

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,638	2480.3	− 2436	44.3	× 15 / 60	11.1
4	90,639	2515.4	− 2485	30.4	× 16 / 60	8.1
5	90,640	2547.3	− 2528	19.3	× 15 / 60	4.8
6	90,641	2600.6	− 2552	48.6	× 14 / 60	11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,571	2449.5	− 2436	13.5	× 17 / 65	3.5
4	90,572	2511.7	− 2485	26.7	× 16 / 65	6.6
5	90,573	2556.1	− 2528	28.1	× 17 / 65	7.3
6	90,574	2589.7	− 2552	37.7	× 15 / 65	8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						26

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,249	2473.1	− 2436	37.1	× 17 / 62	10.2
4	90,250	2486.6	− 2485	1.6	× 14 / 62	0.4
5	90,251	2575.6	− 2528	47.6	× 16 / 62	12.3
6	90,252	2570.3	− 2552	18.3	× 15 / 62	4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						27

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,914	2476.8	− 2436	40.8	× 16 / 60	10.9
4	89,915	2520.1	− 2485	35.1	× 16 / 60	9.4
5	89,916	2508.8	− 2528	−19.2	× 14 / 60	−4.5
6	89,917	2622.7	− 2552	70.7	× 14 / 60	16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						32

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 18, 13, 4, 11, 38, 23, 35, 26, 27, 32 → 22.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 27 · 2019→2022: 15 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 5 → average 10
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10 × 2.66 = 26.6. Upper limit 49.3, lower limit −3.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.