Lincoln Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade 3 bar

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 101 points under the grade 3 bar. 2335 vs. 2436.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,625	2385.1	− 2436	−50.9	× 35 / 98	−18.2
4	93,626	2396.0	− 2485	−89	× 32 / 98	−29.1
5	93,629	2395.0	− 2528	−133	× 31 / 98	−42.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,001	2393.8	− 2436	−42.2	× 29 / 90	−13.6
4	87,004	2383.6	− 2485	−101.4	× 29 / 90	−32.7
5	87,005	2417.3	− 2528	−110.7	× 32 / 90	−39.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,465	2431.7	− 2436	−4.3	× 26 / 80	−1.4
4	89,467	2382.2	− 2485	−102.8	× 29 / 80	−37.3
5	89,468	2408.2	− 2528	−119.8	× 25 / 80	−37.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,676	2385.9	− 2436	−50.1	× 31 / 88	−17.6
4	89,677	2391.9	− 2485	−93.1	× 27 / 88	−28.6
5	89,680	2393.2	− 2528	−134.8	× 30 / 88	−46
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,299	2366.7	− 2436	−69.3	× 31 / 93	−23.1
4	90,300	2380.9	− 2485	−104.1	× 31 / 93	−34.7
5	90,301	2385.6	− 2528	−142.4	× 31 / 93	−47.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,563	2345.9	− 2436	−90.1	× 23 / 77	−26.9
4	90,564	2340.8	− 2485	−144.2	× 25 / 77	−46.8
5	90,565	2368.6	− 2528	−159.4	× 29 / 77	−60
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−134

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,463	2296.3	− 2436	−139.7	× 31 / 69	−62.8
4	90,464	2359.5	− 2485	−125.5	× 22 / 69	−40
5	90,465	2344.9	− 2528	−183.1	× 16 / 69	−42.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−145

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,763	2334.8	− 2436	−101.2	× 19 / 19	−101.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −89, −86, −76, −92, −105, −134, −145, −101 → −103.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 16 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2022: 29 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2026: 44 → average 18
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 18 × 2.66 = 47.9. Upper limit −55.6, lower limit −151.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.