Lincoln Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade 3 bar

The state's English test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 101 points under the grade 3 bar. 2331 vs. 2432.

2026 results. The English test covers reading, writing, listening and research together. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,624	2351.9	− 2432	−80.1	× 34 / 97	−28.1
4	93,627	2398.5	− 2473	−74.5	× 32 / 97	−24.6
5	93,628	2401.2	− 2502	−100.8	× 31 / 97	−32.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,002	2361.0	− 2432	−71	× 29 / 90	−22.9
4	87,003	2374.0	− 2473	−99	× 29 / 90	−31.9
5	87,006	2428.3	− 2502	−73.7	× 32 / 90	−26.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,464	2366.5	− 2432	−65.5	× 26 / 80	−21.3
4	89,466	2352.5	− 2473	−120.5	× 29 / 80	−43.7
5	89,469	2402.7	− 2502	−99.3	× 25 / 80	−31
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−96

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,675	2370.6	− 2432	−61.4	× 31 / 88	−21.6
4	89,678	2392.3	− 2473	−80.7	× 27 / 88	−24.8
5	89,679	2442.5	− 2502	−59.5	× 30 / 88	−20.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,295	2343.2	− 2432	−88.8	× 31 / 93	−29.6
4	90,296	2381.9	− 2473	−91.1	× 31 / 93	−30.4
5	90,297	2408.1	− 2502	−93.9	× 31 / 93	−31.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,559	2341.1	− 2432	−90.9	× 22 / 76	−26.3
4	90,560	2375.0	− 2473	−98	× 25 / 76	−32.2
5	90,561	2411.3	− 2502	−90.7	× 29 / 76	−34.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,459	2321.8	− 2432	−110.2	× 30 / 68	−48.6
4	90,460	2324.7	− 2473	−148.3	× 22 / 68	−48
5	90,461	2351.4	− 2502	−150.6	× 16 / 68	−35.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−132

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,761	2331.0	− 2432	−101	× 19 / 19	−101
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −85, −81, −96, −67, −91, −93, −132, −101 → −93.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 29 · 2018→2019: 24 · 2019→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 39 · 2023→2026: 31 → average 20.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 20.6 × 2.66 = 54.8. Upper limit −38.5, lower limit −148.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.