Goleta Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	84,840	2427.5	− 2436	−8.5	× 507 / 2078	−2.1
4	84,841	2470.0	− 2485	−15	× 504 / 2078	−3.6
5	84,844	2508.4	− 2528	−19.6	× 521 / 2078	−4.9
6	84,845	2547.5	− 2552	−4.5	× 546 / 2078	−1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,658	2458.0	− 2436	22	× 480 / 2040	5.2
4	78,660	2483.6	− 2485	−1.4	× 528 / 2040	−0.4
5	78,663	2523.0	− 2528	−5	× 502 / 2040	−1.2
6	78,665	2546.9	− 2552	−5.1	× 530 / 2040	−1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,813	2464.8	− 2436	28.8	× 494 / 1987	7.2
4	80,816	2497.4	− 2485	12.4	× 483 / 1987	3
5	80,818	2520.9	− 2528	−7.1	× 518 / 1987	−1.9
6	80,819	2566.6	− 2552	14.6	× 492 / 1987	3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	80,966	2466.8	− 2436	30.8	× 474 / 1975	7.4
4	80,969	2500.9	− 2485	15.9	× 497 / 1975	4
5	80,970	2529.3	− 2528	1.3	× 495 / 1975	0.3
6	80,973	2557.3	− 2552	5.3	× 509 / 1975	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,494	2466.5	− 2436	30.5	× 487 / 1972	7.5
4	81,495	2501.2	− 2485	16.2	× 484 / 1972	4
5	81,496	2538.4	− 2528	10.4	× 499 / 1972	2.6
6	81,497	2563.9	− 2552	11.9	× 502 / 1972	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,715	2456.4	− 2436	20.4	× 484 / 1893	5.2
4	81,716	2498.9	− 2485	13.9	× 438 / 1893	3.2
5	81,717	2519.9	− 2528	−8.1	× 487 / 1893	−2.1
6	81,718	2557.4	− 2552	5.4	× 484 / 1893	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,679	2455.0	− 2436	19	× 463 / 1877	4.7
4	81,680	2498.7	− 2485	13.7	× 493 / 1877	3.6
5	81,681	2519.4	− 2528	−8.6	× 440 / 1877	−2
6	81,682	2551.4	− 2552	−0.6	× 481 / 1877	−0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,691	2441.8	− 2436	5.8	× 440 / 1826	1.4
4	81,692	2491.2	− 2485	6.2	× 464 / 1826	1.6
5	81,693	2520.7	− 2528	−7.3	× 495 / 1826	−2
6	81,694	2550.2	− 2552	−1.8	× 427 / 1826	−0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,359	2457.7	− 2436	21.7	× 436 / 1792	5.3
4	81,360	2476.1	− 2485	−8.9	× 429 / 1792	−2.1
5	81,361	2524.2	− 2528	−3.8	× 452 / 1792	−1
6	81,362	2555.2	− 2552	3.2	× 475 / 1792	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	81,281	2451.5	− 2436	15.5	× 433 / 1736	3.9
4	81,282	2500.3	− 2485	15.3	× 434 / 1736	3.8
5	81,283	2512.3	− 2528	−15.7	× 432 / 1736	−3.9
6	81,284	2554.8	− 2552	2.8	× 437 / 1736	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −12, 2, 12, 13, 17, 8, 6, 1, 3, 4 → 5.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 9 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 2 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 5.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.3 × 2.66 = 14.1. Upper limit 19.5, lower limit −8.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Goleta Union Elementary