Julia Morgan Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 23 points under the grade 3 bar. 2413 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2480 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 32 points under the grade 5 bar. 2496 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores just under the grade 5 bar. 2521 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,636	2427.0	− 2436	−9	× 69 / 326	−1.9
4	79,639	2473.2	− 2485	−11.8	× 77 / 326	−2.8
5	79,640	2507.2	− 2528	−20.8	× 79 / 326	−5
6	79,643	2521.3	− 2552	−30.7	× 101 / 326	−9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,818	2428.3	− 2436	−7.7	× 72 / 305	−1.8
4	73,821	2459.3	− 2485	−25.7	× 74 / 305	−6.2
5	73,822	2507.7	− 2528	−20.3	× 79 / 305	−5.3
6	73,824	2539.5	− 2552	−12.5	× 80 / 305	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,796	2431.2	− 2436	−4.8	× 71 / 318	−1.1
4	75,798	2455.2	− 2485	−29.8	× 77 / 318	−7.2
5	75,800	2491.9	− 2528	−36.1	× 78 / 318	−8.9
6	75,801	2524.5	− 2552	−27.5	× 92 / 318	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,982	2428.8	− 2436	−7.2	× 70 / 291	−1.7
4	75,985	2461.6	− 2485	−23.4	× 75 / 291	−6
5	75,986	2482.7	− 2528	−45.3	× 78 / 291	−12.1
6	75,989	2531.6	− 2552	−20.4	× 68 / 291	−4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,505	2422.5	− 2436	−13.5	× 73 / 291	−3.4
4	76,506	2475.5	− 2485	−9.5	× 63 / 291	−2.1
5	76,507	2508.3	− 2528	−19.7	× 77 / 291	−5.2
6	76,508	2518.4	− 2552	−33.6	× 78 / 291	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	75,082	2398.7	− 2436	−37.3	× 55 / 232	−8.8
4	75,083	2449.6	− 2485	−35.4	× 58 / 232	−8.9
5	75,084	2462.5	− 2528	−65.5	× 65 / 232	−18.4
6	75,085	2509.0	− 2552	−43	× 54 / 232	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,675	2401.1	− 2436	−34.9	× 60 / 270	−7.8
4	76,676	2454.0	− 2485	−31	× 71 / 270	−8.2
5	76,677	2471.1	− 2528	−56.9	× 70 / 270	−14.8
6	76,678	2510.9	− 2552	−41.1	× 69 / 270	−10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,657	2418.7	− 2436	−17.3	× 72 / 277	−4.5
4	76,658	2438.5	− 2485	−46.5	× 60 / 277	−10.1
5	76,659	2491.2	− 2528	−36.8	× 73 / 277	−9.7
6	76,660	2510.4	− 2552	−41.6	× 72 / 277	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,642	2416.8	− 2436	−19.2	× 48 / 258	−3.6
4	76,643	2453.2	− 2485	−31.8	× 64 / 258	−7.9
5	76,644	2460.2	− 2528	−67.8	× 59 / 258	−15.5
6	76,645	2521.3	− 2552	−30.7	× 87 / 258	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,305	2417.4	− 2436	−18.6	× 51 / 243	−3.9
4	76,306	2456.7	− 2485	−28.3	× 50 / 243	−5.8
5	76,307	2476.9	− 2528	−51.1	× 74 / 243	−15.6
6	76,308	2493.0	− 2552	−59	× 68 / 243	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,215	2413.4	− 2436	−22.6	× 48 / 216	−5
4	76,216	2479.8	− 2485	−5.2	× 49 / 216	−1.2
5	76,217	2495.8	− 2528	−32.2	× 47 / 216	−7
6	76,218	2521.2	− 2552	−30.8	× 72 / 216	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −19, −17, −25, −25, −20, −46, −41, −35, −37, −42, −23 → −30
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2021: 26 · 2021→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 5 · 2025→2026: 19 → average 7.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.8 × 2.66 = 20.7. Upper limit −9.3, lower limit −50.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.